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Everything posted by tor

  1. I agree, mostly I just read the news feeds then follow up anything that looks interesting. is a good news feed for that as they usually have links to studies / more information which makes it easier. With regard to the Black Americans / vitamin D thing I did actually go down a rabbit hole after chatting with a Dr guy from McGill uni (up the road). He is fairly sure it could be a red herring. tldr; Black Americans have always measured low on the tests but don't exhibit the bone density / fracture incidents etc that white people with the same levels have. Possibly it is used differently. If so we're measuring the wrong thing, certainly in the case of bone strength indicators we are. His opinion (and my news feeds) seem to indicate a high correlation for American covid deaths with obesity, being poor and lack of insurance. Whites in the same situation seem to suck just as bad at staying alive. Diabetes also seemed to crop up a few times as linked with covid deaths and Black Americans have been leaders in that race long enough that higher death rates would be expected if diabetes did help kill you in the presence of covid. One of the more interesting things I have been reading recently is just the weird symptoms, clotting, cardiac issues etc which seem unusual for an upper respiratory virus. It has been showing up on eureka a bit more often recently (although observers bias heh). I guess with the Southern states starting their deaths we'll have some decent data from there eventually as well. They tend to be poorer than the Northern states. Although they tend Republican as well which might confound things a little.
  2. I meant in context of "which studies / experimental usages were any good" I figure epidemiologists are going to be much more experienced at looking at a set of results from guyA using a new treatment and saying whether it looks interesting or is probably just noise. For deciding which treatments might work then, yeah, a specialist in that type of disease is a good idea. At the moment my news feed is still getting all the weird secondary symptoms which make this particular virus look weird enough that there are new theories popping up fairly often which means specialists in whichever type of disease it is is still tricky. I'd prefer to go second on any new drug treatments
  3. Gotta love the hat Realistically pretty much anything and everything is being thrown at people to see what happens. Hydroxychloroquine is hardly a hushed up topic when the President of the US says he is using it and the US has stockpiled 63 million doses. The problem is that there is no time to actually do proper studies (and the ethics are troublesome as well). So pretty much all of these are anecdotal. What studies have been done all seem to have enough confounding factors and low enough results that they are debatable. Hell making patients sleep on their stomach has better results than many of the drug results in some Drs experience. Anyone wanting clicks will write pretty much anything mentioned by anyone, even more if they have Dr in their name. I'd be looking for what they are a Dr in and what their history is. If they were someone that, for example, jumped on the "media induced panic" bandwagon and they are not epidemiologists I might suspect their opinion is about as worthless as anyone else's. It hasn't even been decided if it is a blood virus or respiratory so I'd be wary of trying things except for avoiding contact with other humans. If you should decide to try things you probably want to check the known side effects (I assume with the hat on you won't speak to a doctor).
  4. Seems fairly likely. Maybe it'll backfire if the senate ditches Trump though. His commuting of Stones sentence seems to have got a few feathers riled up (granted mostly in the usual circles). I guess at least we found out yesterday that Trump has never been against masks and has started wearing one. Coincidently on the day the death rate ticked up. Disturbing for me is the death rate uptick actually happened 2 weeks ago and was ignored then 4th of July happened which muted last weeks numbers. This week is still working through the backlog of 4th of July as far as I can tell so I think we'll finish tomorrow with a smallish uptick and next week will be nasty. The Sweden / US correlation has gone away by 2 pts this week already (despite Sweden having a pretty crap week). I am not expecting that correlation to return as I haven't read any significant changes to Swedish policy. US death rate is still at around 3% of diagnosed cases. Total deaths is 100K. If everyone in the US caught the disease the extrapolation is 10M deaths. Herd immunity is said to be around 60% of the population; say 60M deaths. Current guidelines are projecting 200K deaths by November. I do not feel those guidelines are super accurate unless some special thing happens between now and then. Having spent last night chatting to an American across the room I have had my hopes of rational thought reduced but still..
  5. I believe the surveys usually say "self identified republicans". Another poll came out showing a loss in republican approval which matched the rest of the results better. I was just surprised at the jumping through hoops analysis of the previous one.
  6. To prove our diversity and skills we all get to post recipes. Boeuf Bourguignon Righto. This is a great meal for a hungry hungry man and can often feed a lady as some kind of aside. Ideally use some great wine, a splendid array of mushroons and blah blah blah. Doesn't seem to make much difference in my opinion. So Bacon & onions. Get Big Pot. If you can spring for a Le Creuset cast iron pot (on specials they are normally done around 1 - 2 hundred bucks I think) or similar it looks cool and will let you serve from the table if feeding more than 2 or trying to impress the second person by going all rustic and 70's. http://www.lecreuset...cms?productId=1 Say 5 or 6 rashers of bacon and 2 medium onions, slice 'em up and fry 'em in big pot. Not harsh now, take it easy, you want the fat from the bacon to make it all go easy, no burning or sticking if possible. Say 10 minutes on low-medium. While this occurs take your kilo of chuck steak (ask the butcher for it in a single piece, you'll normally end up with a kilo and a half, this is not a problem) and trim the fat, what you are after is removing all the big chunks of fat, try and leave the membrane on the muscle and small elements of fat scattered around, these make the sauce tasty. Chop trimmed chuck steak into bite size pieces. Get an old shopping bag and chuck a cup of flour in there, a small palmful of salt and as much pepper as you like, I go for lots, almost as much as the salt, sometime more, grinding pepper is hard. Throw chuck steak bite size pieces on top of seasoned flour (see you get to use fancy words for flour and salt in a shopping bag, man the french are cool). Shake it about a bit. Onions and bacon ought to be done now. Remove them to the upturned lid of the big ass pot (saves washing). Turn heat up to high on big ass pot. Fry the chunks of steak in smallish amounts. Trick here is too not put so many that the juices come out rabidly (that is stewing the meat and you are never going to repair that problem - it'll still be good but not good enough to make again if it is your first time). Going to far the other way ends up in the oils & flour burning, also not good. See you are putting bits of meat in with the flour, now you aren't puring all the flour in but some comes with the meat, I tend to just grab a double handful of meat and shake it, removes the meat and is about the right amount for the frying. So batch after tedious batch with the flour crusting up in the bottom the whole time, don't worry that is good. You are going to have to add more oil during this process because the flour sucks it up, no recipe seems to mention this. Now one does. So you fry each batch aiming towards the sear on the outside (burned outside and raw inside is perfect) and chuck them in with the onions and bacon as you go along. Now grab some brandy, this can be pretty cheap crap. Have a quick swill to check it hasn't gone off. Get a wooden spoon. Chuck the onions, bacon and meat into the pot. The blood from the meat will start the deglaze process. With the wooden spoon try and stir up the crusty flour from the bottom of the big old pot. You will fail but some work will be achieved. Pour some brandy in, maybe 2 or 3 shots worth, fortify yourself with one: this next bit leads to burns when you bugger it up, chuck a match and stand back. Well that is what the recipes normally say, f*ck that. Get in there with your spoon and stir that brandy into the flour even as it burns. Don't sniff the hairs on your arms that have just incinerated, it ruins the brandy. Grab a bottle of red wine. Something fairly nice, lets say nothing less than $10 and preferably of a grenache / shiraz varietal (because I like drinking them). Pour half of the bottle in but slowly. This bit is really really important. You need to get all that cruddy flour and mix it with the wine. So you pour a bit of wine and stir very localised to get the flour off the bottom of the pot, You'll know when you are done as the pot bottom will suddenyl be clean and slippery. Move to the next bit of the pot with a bit more wine. Continue til you are done. If you don't get the vast majority back into solution you'll get burning later probably. So now you have a bunch of beef floating in half a bottle of wine, there are some onions and bacon there too. Ideally there will be no beef sticking out of the liquid. If it is add more wine or choose a better fitting pot. Drop the temp to as low as it can go. Whack in a bunch of fresh herbs tied with string, when I say a bunch I mean a f*cking wildman buch, don't be pissing around with those gentile 2 bits of parsley and a bay leaf. I say half a bunch of euro parsly, a good handful of fresh thyme, same amount of sage, got some celery? chuck 2 ribs in there. Couple sage leaves are good too. You know this is a boquet garni that people would mistake for a bunch of flowers (I did this once when a friend was in hospital hehehe). Let it simmer for a while, maybe an hour or so. You can screw around with wax paper circles on top and all other nonsense. I just turn the temp to the lowest I can and leave the lid on whilst I examine the quality of the other half of the bottle of red. Throw in some mushrooms. I figure about half the weight of mushrooms to beef is a reasonable type of target, you may like mushrooms more or less than me. I just use button mushroom because I like having whole mushroom floating in there. Sometimes I do the whole dried porcini thing. Haven't really noticed it to be worth it. It is a little better. Soak a packet dried porcini in boiling water. Pout it all in, if the shrooms are particularly big chop them first. Let it simmer for another good long time. Pull out a bit of chuck ever once in a while. When it is good and tender serve it. -Or- Grab a couple spoons flour and mush a spoon of butter into it. Then work some juice from the dish into it. Aiming for a thick smooth paste here. When done add more sauce until you have a fairly think smooth thing. Pour it into the pot and stir it through, let it cook out a bit, you ought to have a nice thick reddish sauce. Serve with mash potatoes. Now there I have a recipe as well, in the meantime just eat the nasty mashed potatoes that you currently make.
  7. Apparently labor day has been chosen by the rest of the GOP as the day that they are free to do what they want if Trump hasn't turned his numbers around. I don't know if this is deliberately ironic or if americans have just lost all awareness of what labor day is celebrating. I do know that if his numbers are still in the toilet and some of the GOP decide to cut the strings trump will lose his mind. Especially if enough of them do and survive what he considers to be his almighty wrath and fury. So I figure early October. That way he f*cks the parties preparation for the election in revenge as well which seems in keeping with his personality. If he wants his TV station he is going to have to avoid being labelled Loooooser and saying "I didn't lose" and "the republicans did when -I- left" would be one way of doing it. I saw a weird arse analysis of some recent polling today. Trump is down in all demographics (even uneducated white males and old white males). But his approval in republicans has risen. This was presented as a good thing for Trump. Mathematically I can only think of two ways this could happen. 1. In each and every demographic the independents or democrats changed their minds and -began- to dislike trump at a rate high enough to cancel out the republican approval increase by the republicans in that demographic. 2. Lots of republicans have changed their minds and are no longer claiming to be republicans. Those remaining have a higher percentage in support of trump. The first seems exceedingly unlikely to me, it's a lot of coincidences. The second seems more likely to me and I couldn't understand why the analyst didn't even consider this possibility. Then I remember talking to Americans and how -they- -do- -not- change party. I think this may be starting to happen and the pollsters are going to miss it for a while. If that happens then we are seriously looking at a 60/40 election which is not going to work for the only legal "stay in power" trick I have heard of.
  8. Doing my weekly numbers and it looks like it mightn't have been a crazy idea to have stayed closed for a few more weeks (assuming decent testing, tracing etc). We have tickets to get home to Poland on the 25th. The current closure of the US/Canada border is set to expire on the 21st. Really hoping they keep it closed a few more days. They are already turning away about 2500 Americans per month at the border. Poxy Southerners
  9. Given the choice of ongoing Trumpian ineffectiveness or a return to the "military-industry complex" nightmare of 5 years ago I think I know what many people would like
  10. Yeah but all the current polling is showing him losing them and Texas just turned on him by mandating face masks. Tulsa has now put Herman Cain in the hospital. The annualised covid deaths for the US (even just using the current probably low numbers if you consider excess deaths) is within spitting distance of being the number one killer for the year. He went on tv again yesterday saying "it'll magically go away, he hopes" as recorded cases jumped 10% from the previous days all time record largely lead by swing/red states. The week on week death rate decoupled from Sweden last week, could be a blip, seems unlikely as it is 3 weeks after the US bounce. At the same time as he tried again to remove obamacare. Oklahoma just voted to -increase- medicaid. Unemployment is running out; second shutdowns have started in Florida & Texas. Framing that as a Democrat thing would be hard. The GOP is saying "yeah we'll do another financial aid package but it won't be as big". The proposed investigating committee for the Russia bounty money looks to be considering using the Bhengazi precedent to get hold of the daily briefings and I forgot how strongly Americans feel about their troops. Could voter sentiment swing around? sure. It doesn't seem likely to me. I'd say Trump dropping out completely seems about as likely. If I could find a place where I could make a bet on Trump dropping out I'd seriously consider it.
  11. Everyone says the polls were wrong last time but largely they weren't. They were way wrong a few months out but the ones I followed definitely indicated it was getting close during the leadup. I admit at the time when they were saying "hey this is close enough to be within bounds of error" I assumed those polls were wrong and watching the colours flip while waiting for a flight reminded me of my own biases quite strongly. Not sure if you guys are getting the news showing that trump seems to have acknowledged that their own internal polling is showing him in trouble. Seems to me he has given up on trying to piss off large swathes of the electorate in one go and has now adopted a tailored response where he pisses people of in smaller groups and this seems to be working. Covid response - piss off educated people, protest - piss off young and minorities, the new "russia paying bounties for US deaths" thing looks like it could be a good screw you to the military. And if the recent SCOTUS decisions are a guide I think his handling of separation of powers has pissed the judiciary off. 3 decisions in a row? I think Roberts is just voting liberal to remind everyone they have an equal part of the power (he voted the exact opposite on the exact same law 4 yrs back). I think the tax returns decision comes this week or next... trump seems to really not want them made public and he seems to take personal infringements more seriously than party politics so it could be time for a spectacular explosion.
  12. heh when they are both mid 70's I can't see why you'd think one was senile and the other wasn't.
  13. My Current Theory to keep me Happy (optimism is fun): 1. Buy more beer. -or- [1] The escalating new cases pop the death rates something fierce in the US in about 3 weeks, say mid July, about as unarguable as the past 3 days of new cases in the US, maybe a bit more. There are still a few people saying it is increased testing causing the biggly numbers but not many compared to last week. Sweden and the US weekly death rate percentage changes diverge and the US public realise their health system is f*cked (Sweden and the US have had almost identical weekly death rate percent increase/decrease since day 1). Sweden celebrates, no one in Europe will let them visit anyway. I mean, they're Swedish! 7 weeks from now, say first week of August, the US public realises that the most rushed and least tested vaccine in history will still not be here for another 3 months minimum and no one actually wants to be the guinea pig for that. All countries with active cases go into actual proper quarantine mode. This time with planning of "who to spend lockdown with", people that can cook will be popular flatmates. Stock market dies. Housing market dies. ISP's make bank. Lack of insurance, unemployment etc causes sh*t tons of havoc to the US public. Trump does something so retarded that even using nazi holocaust insignia in 88 ads will seem sane (not kidding he did this last week! I mean f*ck Me!) Biden wins in November by more than 10% probably with a Black female VP. Trump goes to prison not to a new TV network After 4 months of actual quarantine every house has learned to cook. Supermarkets etc have learned how to keep us alive etc. Even 20yr old me would have gotten sick of pizza after 3 months of fake lockdown and 4 of real. Netflix etc still haven't figured out how to deliver a better service than basic piracy provides. Supply chain has adjusted and we all eat like some kind of "eat local" hippies except the food tastes better than that hippy crap. Artificial meat companies make bank as the on/off switch is revealed to be useful compared to actual cows for a weird supply chain. 90% of the world spends winter in proper quarantine and it's not actually that bad Don't need a car, thats 30K a year saved Don't need to commute, that's a 20% reduction in working hrs etc Consumption reduces, waste reduces, only the seriously rich and seriously poor are having a sh*tty life. Biden decides he wants to leave a serious legacy, not just be "That Black guys VP that beat the worst president in history" plus the seriously poor are looking like getting a wee bit uppity. New health system New social welfare system (UBI? Maybe) Scientists / Specialists are rolled out constantly for news, speeches etc, people trust them. Bernie's head explodes In March someone mentions that global warming is still thing. We believe them. We fix it. Oddly enough no one is left that claims to have ever denied covid or climate change or neo nazis. Yay World. Oh and somewhere along the lines 3M makes an absolute sh*t ton of money when people decide that wearing masks is not a political statement. [1] Let's face it, this is an "and" scenario. Beer always makes me happy.
  14. I'd argue yes it is worth protesting as well. I think even excluding the deaths aspect a change to the way that policing is being done is probably a good thing. The value for money proposition seems to be getting lost as politicians have consistently "solved" issues e.g. mental health by making it the polices responsibility. I'd argue it is not something they are trained for and shouldn't be their job. Seeing: Bad tactics used by the police (horses at rowdy protests just leads to dead horses, cable st in the 30's showed that) The inappropriate choice of using the police to work "protests -against- the police" (nah that will never lead to confrontational people) Almost wilful ignorance of social media (yeah tear gas journalists, children etc I'm sure that will stop the protestors) etc etc Makes me wonder how much the people making these decisions get paid and who does the job review. Something has gone awry I'd guess. The LA sheriffs department (not their only law enforcement agency) costs about $1000 per head of population p.a. as far as I can tell. This does not sound like a good value proposition. The knock on effect of having what looks like an above the law group of people is bad for societies. Having some 15% of your population unwilling to engage with the police doesn't seem likely to make things better. So the manslaughter video, the cooped up people etc. It's not likely the same opportunity will come along to make decent changes. That said the dip in this chart does seem pretty close to about 5 days after the protests got going which is not a great sign. This weekend Trump is having a 20K people convention in a town which is recording all time new cases high (not "since march highs" - all time highs), inside and preponderantly old poor people. I don't see the chart getting better. So I support the protests but I won't be going.
  15. That seems a fair enough view at the beginning. I doubt anyone realistically expected to do such a good job at it though. Eradication seems (from way over here) a possible scenario in the Aus numbers (although I don't really know how good the testing or tracing regimes are - or how realistic any of them are, I guess no one really knows yet). If the testing regime is decent -and the tracing is decent and works -and the internal reservoir is killed off You have a bunch of options few other countries have. it seems likely the world as a whole is going to have to open up to some degree. That means there might be lots of ideas to watch and learn from, Europe opening internally this week, the US defacto opening a month back and NZ declaring itself clean (until some poms went and broke stuff) seem pretty likely to offer lots of info. Maybe a few more weeks of closed borders isn't a crazy idea. I do agree that open ended goals with no sense of achievement are pretty hard to get everyone to follow indefinitely. And certainly despite Swedens pretty crap numbers compared to next door almost identical countries no one actually knows if there plan isn't actually going to have been the best one. I think that given this issue has such a reliance on public adherence it might have been a good one to have online voting used to declare the public desire. Good way to test online voting and get the kinks sorted out
  16. It'd be a shame if, seemingly a few weeks from eradicating it, Australia went and embarked on a second wave. The kiwis have gone a little crazy the past few days Yeah we could theoretically go to NZ but Ewa's mum is a bit sick and we'd like to get back there and help her out. Once you get a taste for working from home in an environment geared up for it (rather than just locked in your apartment) you'll never go back. All the pundits saying "oh people will want to go back to work for the social aspect" seem to think that the reason most people make friends at work is because that is where the great people are... Once you work from home with the freedom to mix in social groups of people you actually like and have things in common with the office seems like the worst place in the world. And as for "talking in person is so much better than email/video conference etc" pffft mostly it is because people can lie to me in person then claim it never happened or people can't communicate or a bunch of reasons which all resolve down to "I should suffer because person X is an incomplete person".
  17. The sentiment basically seems to be "The virus must know we are bored of it now" around here and down south. In The Plateau (students, immigrants, best restaurants, bars etc) on a weekday it looks pretty much like normal now, no masks, close contact queuing. In the Student Ghetto (where we live) last night there were a decent number of people wandering about carrying fairly obvious "going to a party" stuff and a couple of late night parties within hearing range. We were planning on waiting for the borders to open, watch what happens for a month or two then go home to Poland (which is not having great rate changes atm) but now we are thinking the next few weeks might change our opinion and we'll watch for a few days after the borders open while the process is sorted out then scamper away. On the bright side the border with the yanks is staying closed til late July I think.
  18. Yeah the riots here have pretty much finished the whole covid masks and distancing thing. At least the protests here in Montreal maybe 90% of people had masks on and there were people with hand sanitiser wandering around (and things didn't get too silly afterwards). We currently have a small humpback whale in the river here. We are roughly 750km from the sea. Basically I have given up trying to make plans further away than "what is for dinner". 2020, just keeping us on our toes
  19. Owwww!!!
  20. Not sure what the sentiment is in Australia but here we are thinking of starting to train again; no contact, no yelling, all in masks, a small group (none of whom are really targets) etc. Even so only 20% of the club are even considering it. The rest certainly aren't going out in public, restaurants etc. You can throw all the money in the world at a problem but if the customers actually believe things are serious they ain't spending. Montreal has kind of f*cked up so far (mostly for the old) and I think the risks are actually in most peoples minds. Restaurants etc are probably screwed. Australia I doubt any of you guys even consciously know a person that has had the virus and the media seems fairly self congratulatory so I guess so long as it stays away you might be fine as there is no consumer fear yet.
  21. I'd like a wok but a lot of places we go have electric or induction cook tops. I hate flat bottom woks and electric is not even worth bothering with for a wok in any sense outside of being a funny shaped fry pan. I think I am going to add a grater to my list I bought a cheap one here and do use it at least twice a week and there is no other replacement I can think of for it.
  22. Not yet. Today's update in strategy was to say that it doesn't even kill as many people being fat does. Assuming they mean heart related death (US ~650K p.a.) that means they bloody well skipped cancer (600K) and accidents (170K) as they worked up the list. I think that might be because even the dimmest of them has a sense that 100K deaths in 3 months (currently under counted by about 50% I'd guess based on excess death stats for the leading US states) is actually starting to get close to threatening that number. One of my US'ian friends did point out it was amusing that of all the people to start breaking quarantine it was the preppers. The exact scenario they have been planning for and spending their time and money on and they can't stay inside for a couple of weeks. heh.
  23. Yeah pretty much. Then ran home to sh*ttweet about how "Biden looked weak wearing a mask. And isn't it weird that Biden wears a mask in public but not in his basement".
  24. Trump did a memorial day speech. He stayed on script throughout. Was weird. 12 mentions of the flag in 12 minutes which feels fairly standard for 'merkin speeches. Focussed largely on dying for the flag. "For as long as our flag flies in the sky above, the names of these fallen warriors will be woven into its threads. For as long as we have citizens willing to follow their example, to carry on their burden, to continue their legacy, then America’s cause will never fail and American freedom will never ever die." Just wish someone had told him he doesn't need to kill off more Americans to make more flags.
  25. No one tell them how the flu numbers they were using as a comparison a few months back are calculated From what I have read some epidemiologists consider the "1 in 1000" death rate over the entire populace to be a psychological threshold where it becomes personal. Like most people sort of know enough people that one of them will die in that level of death rate. That is what NY and NJ got to. I'd argue those two states have had a downward trend in daily deaths for about about a month: Connecticut, Massachusetts and Louisiana are the next 3 by deaths / million. 9/8/500 respectively. I'd argue those three states have had a fairly constant death rate for the past month. I suspect the reopening in MY/NJ will be fairly minor as people just don't go out. The other states it won't have become personal and people will go out and the spread stands a chance of spiking again with about a 2 week cases spike and a 3 or 4 week death spike. Canada has requested that the border remains closed. Trump wanted to send troops to the border a few weeks back so I am sure we will be allowed to