tor

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About tor

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  1. So short answer is you are going to continue sticking with journalists and bloggers.
  2. Again with newspaper articles. Do I have to do another flood of google alerts to show you how silly you are being? If you are going to measure what the BoM is saying you have to link to where they are saying it. Without even reading the newspaper article I can guarantee there will be no methodology and so you are left arguing over what the journalist was predicting and how that was going to be measured. You say the US had a cold winter because they had a few days Staring clown say they had a mild winter because they had more hot records than cold by a factor of 2 Neither of which address what the journalist at apnews was saying would happen. And if you are constantly going to claim superior accuracy by your astrologers over the journalists at least try and have a prediction from each in a post where you are trying to compare them. Otherwise you are going to look like every other astrologer fan and cherry pick your predictions.
  3. Cobran thinks journalists are scientists. The scary thing for me is watching him over the years pick up all the dishonest debating techniques that basically boil down to "If I lie enough and ignore the refuting of those lies and repeat them then I win" which seem to have enamoured enough of the populace that people like Trump can get away with their crap. He's a good case study and I keep reading his silliness to remind myself not to go into the "scary liberal bubble". I have no doubt he keeps supporting the stance because he is scared of what is happening and adopting that stance makes him feel safer (plus maybe a little superior).
  4. Cobran I ask this seriously. If you ignore the nomenclature I assume you agree that global warming / climate change people are saying "more sun energy is in the earth" And the cooling cycle people are saying "less sun energy is in the earth". If we ignore all the straw man arguments from either side (both sides have people that are f*cking idiots) then I think we have two choices at a high level: More sun energy is making more extreme situations. Less sun energy is making mire extreme situations. Are you really choosing "lower energy making things extreme"? It just seems a weird arse place to come from to me. The "more energy people" have an argument that fits with my experience of physics: More energy makes for more chaos. Polar vortexes, weird arse typhoon seasons etc are just basically a bunch of energy unusually present somewhere and weather (not climate) is changing radically because of it. but I have not seen an argument from the "less energy" people that makes any sense. Less energy causing more change seems fairly unlikely. Using the general rule of "you don't understand it if you can't explain it in a few sentences to a five year old" can you point me to the ELIA5 few sentences supporting the cooling theory? Your last link from armstrong was long and full of strawmen arguments.
  5. Again the in depth understanding of the scientific method is shown!
  6. So the astrologer says it is hot in Aus. (which I am fairly sure everyone was saying woud happen last year due to the change in el nino / la nina) and the astrologer is self taught which means that Armstrong is correct about sunspots causing global cooling as evidenced by the extreme cold in the US (which he originally said would be Europe) because Armstrong is self taught and anyway SHEEPLE GLOBULL BUTTER EMAILS. Sorry been busy for a bit and just catching up. Think I have it now.
  7. Back in Japan so I'm not sure for most areas we visit. Your link didn't mention much about Poland. I know where I spend most of my time is getting snow but also above zero most days which is still destroying the snow cover, fortunately way up there is not agriculture heavy. It'll be a month or two before they know if everything is okay I believe.
  8. I believe the end result was "we can't agree how to measure it" which I believe was the answer I gave you at the time. Maybe I am the greatest predictor EVA! I mean the only reason I reply to your sh*t is to ensure it is on the wayback machine and someone will dox you in a few years so your kids get to hate you specifically rather than as a generic "I hate my dad" kind of crap. Cause, my lord, your kiddies are gonna want to dance on your grave. I foresee a reality series in some 10 years or so which I can pitch to that dutch guy, I'm building my credentials now, hopefully you'll still be alive to hate watch it.
  9. Sounds like pretty sh*t tech... or are you the type of project manager that tells the client to change their business practice to meet some "6 iterative ISO sigma crowd scrum sourced" paradigm but has no interest in "dynamic"? Sheesh way to give up a buzzword. My opinion: Client resource usage in this use case scenario is obviously dynamic and always has been. In the past this has been met by over engineering for technical reasons. New tech has made over engineering cost ineffective. The incumbent has been propped up by government for so long that they have resources to use swaying government support but no practical way to compete without changing their minds. Obvious client solution is to pay for propaganda to support the incumbents government financial support as the alternative is to build an R&D division and change managements thought process. Hey Cobran go spend a day working in any of Australia's power companies at any f*cking level and come back telling me they are not more hidebound than the bloody civil service and I will laugh in your face. I got paid a couple K a day to smoke outside for a couple months while they discussed my ideas which were just basic best practice from like 10 years earlier at one of them until I got bored and told them I'd smoke at home for the couple of K and save them a few hundred in cab fare per day. They f*cking approved that idea!!!
  10. My google alert for "'record' or 'extreme' weather" has been very much focussed on 'Australia' and 'Hot' recently. If I had skin in the "Cobran is experiencing Cognitive Dissonance at a level giving wannabe french film directors erections that hurt" game I'd bother copy pasting them. But I feel bad just pasting a ton of sh*t links and always feel obliged to make comments per link after actually reading them and I have stuff to do... mostly of course those things are drinking and letting off fireworks this past month
  11. Coal is PC? Sometimes your arguments use so much rhetoric they become logically inconsistent. I know you are trying to say renewables are PC (which I find amusing) but your own arguments are saying giving money to coal is PC. Which is probably not what you feel in your gut. I am guessing trusting your gut is why you are stuck in "not quite the arse of sydney working in not quite the arse of industry" and feeling so much hatred as everyone passes you by. Give it up man, ideals and ideology are swell and all but a lot of the time you have to look at the world and accept you are probably wrong. When was the last time you were wrong, accepted it and made a profit?
  12. A simple answer to a complex question is a stupid thing to do. You want me to say that "if prices go up then it is because of frost and that is caused by global cooling caused by sunspots" or the opposite. I am not going to say that because it is ridiculous. It is an insanely complex area. If it wasn't the problem of "what to do" would be solved. Regardless of warming / cooling or whatever. Look at Japanese rice prices and the impact of this years horrific weather on them (nothing - the government supports the internal industry insanely). Which is why I have spent so much time over the past few years working on "cold weather farmers with a history of small farms and low tech" - I think I can make money out of the reality of their world because I am smart in a skill not common for Poland yet and am trying to understand what these guys are actually facing as well as what they think they are facing but aren't as well as listening to them. I don't tell them "this will happen" - they are farmers, that doesn't work. I suggest we measure stuff and do analytics and use farms owned by old people nearby as controls (a lot of the old family farms aren't being used anymore). One of my employees is doing similar for sheep in Australia (his own venture and not related to me although we met through a pretty big Australian company marketing Australian meat throughout the world). His is more about breeding and is focussed on China though so a bit different. Got to have a hobby after all. If it makes you insanely rich all the better. But mostly the Poland and Japan agriculture thing for me means I get to get drunk with farmers and light fireworks I shouldn't be allowed near.
  13. Do I agree all government tariffs / subsidies etc should be removed? Nope.
  14. So Armstrong's prediction of a colder Europe is failing despite it being a safe bet as last year was so damn hot and instead he talks about the predictions he didn't make? Nice prophet. As for people with skin in the game. I am going through my usual annual trip to rural Poland at the moment, the farmers I am talking to have skin in the game. You may remember about 4 years ago I suggested Poland was an interesting place to invest for a bunch of reasons. These guys remember 2006 (from memory). Once again Poland is freakishly warm, unlike last year though this year there is no snow cover on the fields from the furtherest North I have been, Upper Podlasie, down through Silesia. Going to be an interesting next few months. I think a significant portion of international exportable agriculture product comes from "cold" countries. Poland has some 60% of the country given over to agriculture. In 2006 (or whenever it was) they had a warm winter. Crop yields were down some 20% (similar for most of the eastern euro countries affected but they produce negligible product comparatively). Cold agriculture, I think, is more susceptible to temperature fluctuations than warm countries. A lot of that is to do with frost damage, if there is no snow during the winter period the crops die as the snow is an insulator. (I think this might be where Armstrong got his idea from and he garbled it up a bit either through lack of knowledge or deliberately to support his "any stance except warming"). Most of Poland has highs within say 5 degrees of zero during the day. So warmer by a few degrees is a real issue. How country agriculture doesn't have such a small range of tolerance as far as I am aware. I think I posted my thoughts on Japanese rice farming here a while back. Temperature variations of a few degrees are not of such great concern for yield there (again nightmarishly complex comparison though, politics being a big differentiating factor). The study I linked to a few weeks back regarding yield of damaged arctic flora is causing some consternation when we translate the gist of it but a reasonable number of people have said that is pretty much what they have observed over the years anyway so it is not huge news. Anyway there are a bunch of other factors involved (Russian tourists, historical issues with farm sizes etc) which make it all very complex and there are strategies a few people are playing with to combat this years warmth. However none of these guys have blogs or subscription sites where you can "follow them" sorry. They make their money farming. I think I will stick with my guys over yours for now.
  15. You agree that coal gets subsidies then? Weird chain of logic if so: Renewables shouldn't get subsidies, they should fight coal in an even market - coal gets most of the subsidies Renewables shouldn't get any subsidies. Coal can keep theirs. - oh okay then I guess. Why not just lead with that? I hate renewables - yeah we noticed.