Max Carnage

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About Max Carnage

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  • Birthday 04/01/76

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    Regional VIC
  1. Yep. Interest rates are headed to zero unless a crash event allows the RBA to reset and regain fiscal control. Right now they're just a puppet to the credit bubble, responding as required to prevent the bubble bursting. And 'as required' = lower, then lower agin, then lower still.
  2. Wasn't. Still good comedy though.
  3. Looks like it stars the same failed investors Cobran 20 linked to in the mining thread: https://mobile.twitter.com/_katemoloney/status/701132815740440576 Former Somersofties too, I think?
  4. 8.15 Sunday on #60Mins - how to survive the looming mortgage crisis and save your family home. https://www.facebook.com/60Minutes9/videos/vb.206832076052782/927069564029026/?type=2&theater Might be worth watching.
  5. Do we have a grasp on the degree of 'house-sharing' currently? I know there was plenty on young adults staying at home, but AFAICT, the bedrooms per person picture is reversed. In any case, if NG was removed and prices adjusted the ensuing recession and unemployment would be significant. I'm not sure if Ugg has factored this in, but it would dampen buyer demand in multiple ways, at least in the short term. * by reducing the cost of rent (duh) * by reducing the number of people who could qualify for a loan * by reducing enthusiasm for purchasing a falling knife * by reducing the liquidity of lenders Over a longer timeframe, I have no doubt we'd see a smaller % of speculators and a larger % of FHBs. But then, I haven't understood Ugg's equations.
  6. I'll admit to not having read this entire fascinating thread, but can anybody point me in the direction of an estimate of total net inflows of foreign investment (including FIRB and the 'other') to the residential market?
  7. G'day Solomon, You've spotted something odd. He's getting a (claimed) 5.7% yield, which is about twice the norm, and yet his costs (including loan servicing & maintenance) are equivalent to paying 13.6% interest on his (claimed) debt. I suspect there's either a mistake in the stated debt, or his creditors are vastly different from traditional ADIs.
  8. "HE’S got a $35 million property portfolio at just 30, makes half a million dollars a year in rental income, and thinks talk of a housing bubble is “bulls**t”. His message for struggling first home buyers is simple: stop whingeing and do something about it." http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/dont-buy-into-housing-bubble-bullst-says-property-tycoon-nathan-birch/story-fndban6l-1227433934754?pg=2#comments Interesting to see an update on this dingleberry. Thoughts?
  9. That sounds incredibly stressful. But well played. I hope the new place works out well.
  10. I've been out diversifying my hobbies, dodging stalkers and changing careers. I've bored of some of those hobbies, and the new career is settled. And the housing market looks interesting, so I thought I'd check in. You want me to make some charts to prove my provenance? :->
  11. Oops, Google says it was 60 Minutes. http://sixtyminutes.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8681787
  12. Sorry, it's been a while... Perth? Or Australia? Ta. Need to watch FX then, maybe. Did you see the recent story on (hmm, I want to say Sunday?) TV where they showed, as just one example, a new city that was ~ 80% complete that was supposed to rival Manhattan or something? And work had just stopped. It's pretty scary. Impossible to know the facts and figures, but I'm sure it's bigger than the last global housing bubble. There's just nothing ever in the history of the world to rival the scale of the China project.
  13. Thanks Mr Clown, I've been reading macrobusiness for the last couple of weeks. They've grown into something great, both in editorial/analysis and in quality of comments. Bookmarked. I'll have a look at the others, providing they're not creep-infested. Canberra looks like an interesting market, with the public service copping a flogging (if I'm not mistaken) at all levels in most states over the last couple of years, and the fall of Labor gov'ts either worsening that or (perhaps) looming. Any suggestions for macro indicators? Should we be looking at housing finance (my favourite) or unemployment or interest rates as the primary driver of prices? Here in semi-rural East Victoria, the situation could best be described as boring. Existing house prices have gone nowhere for a few years. Stock levels remain high (though it's amazing how they move in spurts of several months activity followed by nothing - perhaps due to a shallow buyer pool?). Existing (last century average) houses are still $240k to $300k. New building continues apace, on $100k new lots, and is mostly big. So $360k to $400k for a bog-standard new build on 700m. Looking at the footprints of these towns (as I do for work), many have increased by 20% to 30% in size over the last ten years. Rather more than population. Talking to people at work and in the community, there is a common theme of financial squeeze, mainly from rising bills (rates, power, water, gas and car rego are all rising much faster than incomes). I know a lot of potential FHBs who are either priced out or beyond caring, though the occasional first purchase is still a cause célèbre. I know (and am related to) quite a few potential sellers who are at the point where they need to realise some gains (real or imagined), who still 'don't want to give it away'. Two (relatives) have had their nest eggs on the market for almost two years. To agents... A friend at work has had her property on the market for 7 months. The agent tells her it usually takes a year to eighteen months to sell a house (!), so they've been battling to keep their house tidy since Christmas. Twelve inspections, no offers. They're not dropping the price. My wife and I are pretty happy with where we live, except it could be bigger, and we could do without the bogan neighbours. We stumbled across a lovely plot of land, just under 10,000m, all services, ten minutes from work, for $160k ONO. Nice. Overpriced. Made a cheeky offer of $120k, and the agent has been all over it. The subdivision (9 lots off an old farm) was first planned in 2007, finished in 2009, and no lots sold until a month ago, when a larger one was picked-up. The agent - considering the amount of time I've spent dealing with him - has clearly spent a large chunk of his working week trying to talk the vendors down. The vendors are elderly and cantankerous, so I guess it just shows that he's looking for any commission, even a few percent on a cheap property. If the vendors hold fast they can keep it. We'll renovate, add a few rooms and put a big brick wall between the neighbours and us. I guess a combination of our current personal experience and the recent hype about a new boom has me interested. I suspect the slow bleed of the last few years is due for a shake-up one way or the other. Or more likely, sharply one way, then sharply the other.
  14. Hi SSers, You seem to have your fingers on the pulse. I don't. So, what's going on now with house/property prices in your part of the world, or at the national level? What can we expect of the next six months, or 3 years? Or thirty? Assume you are talking to someone who has a new interest but no idea. What websites would you recommend to a person who had just arrived in Australia and wanted to quickly get a grip on the current state of the housing market? All replies appreciated.
  15. Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/help-ease-cost-of-living-newlyweds-20130513-2jii7.html#ixzz2TE6YVvKe Diddums. Worried about the cost of gas, electricity, petrol and groceries, and need welfare to send the baby to daycare.