DataDawg

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About DataDawg

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  1. If you take the ABS Housing Finance figures released earlier this week, and remove 'refinancing' and 'loans for the construction of new housing' series from the 'total', you'll find that the average loan amount for the purchase of 'new' and 'existing' housing in NSW has remained stable since early 2010! The figure released by the ABS and published in the newspapers is not what the reporters say it is. That is, it is not an accurate indication of demand for housing. It double counts loans for purchases that were made in the past (refinancing) AND loans that go towards increasing the supply of housing stock (construction loans - which would, in the absence of a mania/artificial demand, bring house prices down). Graph refinancing on its own, and you see what's driving up the housing finance figures that were quoted jubilantly in the mainstream news! Loving your work booboo!
  2. Some historical context for clearance rate believers and doubters alike (the latest data from all sources is shown): All three sources show that the downward trend in clearance rates is still very much intact.
  3. Hehe.. yeah.. and to answer Zaph, the fellow on the right is using the banana as: 1. an ersatz Walther PPK 2. one of those stress toys.. you know... the ones you squeeze.. all the big companies give them out, including banks :-D
  4. Awww.. such a beautiful quadrouple. They look so HAPPY together. :-D
  5. Doesn't get any fresher.
  6. muzza, on 16 February 2011 - 09:52 PM, said: Good on you DataDawg, love your work man. It's an absolute pleasure to assemble and show the bigger picture, even if we don't know how much each data point is massaged/tweaked before being released. The more info we have, the easier it is to judge what is reliable and to what degree it is reliable.
  7. Hey there booboo, I obtained the RP clearance rates series from this page: http://reareports.realestate.com.au/index.do under the 'News' section, near the bottom. If you go to 'more news' you have quite a long listing of these auction reports going back to the beginning of my time series. I haven't signed up for any RP data products. Just getting what I can for free. Yep, looks like the results you posted are 'updates' on the reports I've been using. Yep APM are like that. They like to fiddle with the little bar chart on the domain page too. Hehe. Last year they left off a few months' bars until the clearance rate picked up temporarily. Then they put up the month with the increase and chopped off the earlier bars which were much higher. This hid the consistent downward trend since March 2010. Sneaky bastards.
  8. ...the below chart shows a divergence in median price and clearance rates that starts in September last year. From here you can observe the antagonism that began to grow between price and the proportion of 'successful' auctions.
  9. Point no. 1 accepted. Point no. 2: RP data show more details such as the number sold prior and after. They also show 'total auctions' but is it REALLY the total no. of auctions, or just those they bothered to include in their calculations? Note that RP isn't as consistent in reporting weekly clearance rates, so the below series is more broken up, but very similar to the APM series I posted above. APM show median price and total amount (all auctions added up, from which an average can be obtained). I've charted both for your viewing pleasure. Note that the above APM chart includes the price data for today's result which is a stellar 69% clearance rate for Sydney, with 151 auctions reported, 110 sold and only 9 withdrawn! But I show the median/average price to demonstrate that today's higher than trend-average clearance rate came at a cost :-D. I've said before (either on this forum or on some other forum) that once vendors stop being stubborn and settle on lower bids, the clearance rate will increase. Perhaps today's APM auction results are showing us that vendors are finally starting to capitulate.. or maybe it's all just cooked up and we'd obtain more reliable information from chicken gizzards :-D
  10. Mmm.. I haven't read Crikey for quite some time. Completely unaware that they'd tackled property auctions reporting. Good work! The RE industry has no excuse for not providing a 'total number of auctions'. We know that this number is obtainable because the MSM sometimes quote it in the pre-Saturday real estate press releases (printed in verbatim) that they try to pass off as independent journalism. The measure of auction performance (clearance rate, whatever they want to call it) should be the total number of auctioned properties divided by THAT number. This way, even if there is selection bias in the numerator, the denominator won't be tinkered with (as long as they keep trumpeting it before Saturday AND use it in the clearance calculation). This method should produce a more 'reliable' series of clearance rates - or at least a more truthful one. Clearance rates, it can't be forgotten, are best interpreted as a time series. Note that historical APM and RP data auction reports both show a steadily falling trend in clearance rates from mid-high 70's in March last year to high 40's ' / low 50's by end of December (see attached - and note that I've put in yesterday's clearance rate, which appears as a single dot at the end). You can only observe these trends if you refer back to old clearance rate figures and punch them into a spreadsheet yourself, as I've done. Trends for over half a year are not shown in these reports (or at least not in the online freebies). Of course, the numbers will always be tinkered with. It won't be easy for REA's to take the pay-cut that's coming. Most will have to go without the latest model Beamer. Hell, they might even have trouble paying for the spare parts to keep the old jalopy going.
  11. Yeah.. I was thinking the panic was so great that after stripping the denominator down to a 'reasonable' (i.e. 'plausible') 66, they didn't think to perform the calculation (because these aren't real numbers anyway) and instead referred to the last published clearance rate (55% from memory) as a guide for this week's clearance rate. Thus they brought this week's down to 48%, just because it was a nice round number and it was certainly better than the ACTUAL 5-10%. :-D
  12. I call BS on the total number of properties up for auction in Sydney. Only 66 properties in total, when the total number of home price reductions, as of yesterday, as displayed at http://www.refindhouseprices.com for NSW was approx. 2,750? I would think the REAL clearance rate was MUCH lower than 48%. It's just that a lot of the failed auctions weren't reported. http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/e0784c855c.jpg http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/be7001b176.png
  13. Hehe.. yes... remember this classic ad? ... "the fear and worry continued to grow and move all around the world until the unthinkable happened when some of the biggest most respected institutions went down and the governments did not come in to bail them out [those unreliable gubermental bastards!!!]. This increased the fear that the global financial l system might actually collapse." Hehe.
  14. The sudden increase in total value and number of purchases of existing dwellings in November surprised me at first. Then I graphed the 'average value' of purchases by dividing one by the other to find that the average dwelling value has been quite flat since May 2010. This leads me to conclude that the November jump is due to the increase in price reductions and dwelling stock (as reported by SQM and Stewart of Burb Watch). Buyers came to the party. The post new-year's party should be bigger.