boz

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About boz

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  1. His comment are a pointless as it is not up to the ecb to ultimately decide how a country deal with their problems. But also because Cyprus banking system is different then other EU countries. Cyprus economy was a bit like Iceland and very much centred on the banking system, for example country like Italy is the other way around with all banks listed that capitalise as much as 1 australian bank. I don't really see vaste recapitalisation of banks in europe, specially now that the euro lost few cents and can give a bit of breath to european economy in next few months. i see more the German banks manager relieved thinking the german business will be ok together with the money that was lent to them with this weaker euro favouiring the industrial pruduction and industrial exports.
  2. No I don't have any account in Cyprus, but I am not worried at all, EU if want can fix the matter and even if they don't fix it it is not going to be a big problem...In meantime they send 4 container full of euro cash notes just to make people happier having money onder themattress instead that into banks (apparently they contain 5 bil euro...)
  3. this trade data show what is happening in germany and europe. you can see Germany export very weak inside euroland while import from rest of euroland are strong. but Germany export recover and have far greater importance towards rest of EU and outside europe. infact overall the German positive trade numbers are still rising. Pretty much like: who cares about EU and its perifery if euro stay weak...
  4. He makes sense, when he say higher inflation for germany then europe perifery it doesn't just mean CPI but also, and above all wages prices. In any case those are the scenario you can read now but it can change, specially if a new governor step in the FED and if US CPI goes consistently above 3-4%
  5. the statistic come out from ISTAT that work similar to the ABS. I think it is reliable and it has to follow EU procedures and methodology (for example for CPI). also in Italy it is not given much importance to data on media, it is given more importance to politicians statements. I guess that is good in the way that there is not much spruiking on data and data is unluckily to be manipulated. One example was the positive retail sales data from yesterday that had little mentions on media. Yesterday Media focused much more on the bond yield that after a 9 bil euro government emission it reached lowest level since march.
  6. the good thing about john analisis is that it consider the Net investment position instead of bond yield, infact bond yield are very much a consequence of market and speculation while NIP or foreign debt is something that effect yield in long term but not effected by market. When you look what are the world country with low bond yield in long term you pop up to the one with biggest positive investment position: Switzerland 10 year bond yield is at 0.5% and Japan one is at 0.8%. About the specific case mentioned in the Fortune analysis (from June) on your link say: There is so much rubbish and wrong data in that, for example it is not 70% of GDP to refinance in 1 year but far less (as it has average life of 6.7 years for 120 GDP debt), see this link for more reliable data or this interesting table Also it state how shocking the rise in yield in one month, well, now, 2 month later those yield are lower then the starting month point (3.7% for 3 year bond and 5.7% for 10 year bond). To me it shows how is like to play the lottery to analyse economies based on market prices of bond yields, specially when speculators are full on duty
  7. If Italy would be analised using the same data as John used for Australia it would look far better. For example the term of trade of Italy and Europe is the opposite of Australia, so if it peaked for Australia it would have bottomed for Europe. Then he make me laugh the comment about the drop in Italian saving rate at around 11% (that is a consequence of poor term of trade), In australia we are all cheering the boost of savings from family downunder that is peaking at 10% (because of greatly positive term of trade...
  8. mostly will be hedged and the left over covered by central banks swaps. But like John mauldin is saying that a run on Australian debt from creditor will lead to massive money printing and big devaluation of AU$. I agree with John report on that. rising inflation is also a consequence
  9. My link (alternatively see the pdf attached) I don't agree with the analisis completely but the data is there for everyone to see and make our own mind... mwo082712.pdf
  10. people in china can spend their money as their wish, it is just about investment instead of consumption they still have a sustainable position with external countries and they debt is far better then any western country. The risk for chines is a bit like the one of the germans with greece that they might never see their money going back to the original country
  11. marketwatch At the end of the day it is up to chinese to believe or not the pommie press, they'll be far more in control then the westerners when things turn ugly...
  12. kind of funny that I was in Lubeck (and Travemunde) just a month ago. then I took the ferry to Malmo from there...
  13. eu trade data.pdf some real data to analise (specially for who is bored of reading over again the boring pommies press) Most interesting I think is at end of page 4 when you see the single states trade positions changes from a year earlier. I was surprised to read Greece was able to export 17% more then a year earlier (import - 10%), Portugal also boosted export by 9% (import -6%). May be was local business that can't find local customers and found other market to sell their goods. Anyway these data make you wonder how sustainable is a low euro and how sustainable is the capital outflow to balance the positive trade?
  14. Couldn't quite watch it all the way, he is dreaming if he thinks things in greece will get better in months with dracma more competitive. He is dreaming when he thinks new business will be created and the present one will expand by more competitive pricing on exports. In greece there is no industrial and manufacturing industry to expand, may be a dying industry can be revive, but not a dead one!
  15. But japan has 0.8 interest rates because he has a trade surplus, same with switzerland and with germany, etc, rates is CONSEQUENCE