booboo

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About booboo

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  1. Been watching them off and on for a while, but have gone off them lately. Too much kool aid needed to buy their message. They are pretty sickening. The Chris Gray one is even extremely boring to boot and his voice hurts my ears. The others are YMYC property edition and Real Estate News. Real Estate News is particularly bad, it mainly tries to peddle over priced off the plan apartments, complete with cheap production values. Did you also manage to catch some Switzer?
  2. This will likely be one of the last posts reporting the REINSW "results". The REINSW manages to keep the headline clearance rate above 62%, but the real adjusted clearance rate fell to 53.8% (which includes withdrawn and postponed, those dodgy jokers!). The number of unreported remains statistically significant, at 72 auctions (with, no doubt, some further results "missing"). It's very likely that the real clearance rate, once all the "no result" auctions are added in was under 50%. The average was $593k, a big drop from $660k and $729k the previous weeks. There was a significant bounce in the number of private sales from the Easter week lows, back to 568 from 334. This is back roughly tracking the same volume of private sales from late Feb to mid/late March. The average, however, was slightly up, at $490.8k, from $477.9k and $478.5k the previous weeks. This is still down, however, on the low-$500k averages seen typically in March.
  3. Another average result from APM, with the clearance rate settling back into the mid-50s range. With the results from Easter long weekend missing due to the low number of auctions, all comarisons will be back to the not-so "Super Saturday". A 56% clearance rate, a small rise from 54% reported from Super Saturday. (If you're Dr Ando, we're now back into a "rising trend", I guess, based on our two samples.) The corresponding wekeend last year had a 55% clearance rate reported form APM (incidentally, the corresponding weekend last year was the week prior to Easter). The number of auctions had a big (expected) fall to 182 auctions + 36 withdrawn, compared to Super Saturday's 533 auctions + 93 withdrawn. The same time last year there were 457 auctions + 70 withdrawn. The median had a big fall, down to $660k from $835k (last year it was $769.5k). The average also had a big fall, down to $639.2k, from $895.5k. Last APM report from me, until the weekend of May 12th when I will back. Thanks to staringclown, if he could just cut and paste the results from APM in this thread for the next couple of weeks (at this link) that would be great!
  4. Check the dates on the report - 2009 - 2010. There's no relevance to mattau's comment above, obviously. With that little bit of preamble over... Well, judging by who commissioned the report, you can firstly take it with a massive grain of salt. Secondly, expect the calls for hand outs to help Victoria's "biggest industry" to commence. And thirdly, consider any place/location/city that has property as its biggest industry. That place is either a) massively diversified with a lot of smaller, but significant, local industries, or Victoria, i.e., massively screwed as the "biggest industry" is currently in an unsustainable bubble. Unfortunately, Victoria is, well, Victoria. PS My idea for a), above, is the only way property can be even close to the biggest industry anywhere and the place not to be in an obvious bubble. I fail to see how any economy can be sustained by selling houses to each other for ever increasing amounts of money (above wages and inflation). The whole thing is almost a mania.
  5. Another week of not-so-good results from RP Data, in direct contradiction with the REINSW's results. In fact, it's almost farical they are so different. RP Data has a total of 198 auctions reported including 31 withdrawn, and REINSW had 291, yet no withdrawn, postponed or with no result. Something is clearly amiss The clearance rate from RP Data was 48.5%, just up from the 46% recorded last week. The volume was well down, at 167 reported auctions from 796 reported auctoins. The number of withdrawn dropped from 144 to 31, yet porpotionally was more significant. Going by RP Data's clearance rates, Dr Ando's claims on the clearance rates being better than November last year is a bit of a stretch.
  6. Sorry, forgot to do the REINSW data. Will do the RP Data results right after as well. REINSW results are particularly bogus this week. Having already seen the RP Data results, I call shenanigans! Why? They claim 0 withdrawn and 0 postponed AND 0 no result. Complete rubbish, because, er, RP Data has a massive 31 auctions as withdrawn. Seriously, talk about your fudged figures. Anyone have an email address for the REINSW? I want to challenge them on their result. If there was ever proof that the REINSW numbers are dodgy and/or fudged as all hell, this is it. Anyway, I think I'll start to skip over the REINSW numbers in future as, frankly, such a fudged set of numbers just are not worth the effort. I'll get grabbing their private sales number for the week, however, as that is mildly intereting. If only it was more trustworthy. So, 63% headline and adjusted clearance rate for the 0 withdrawn and postponed (and 0 no result, cough). All of a sudden their spiking unreported figure went to 0, as did the withdrawn and postponed. Numbers dropped significantly for the Easter weekend, which was to be expected. The average price was $660k, down from $729k the previous week. The number of private sales also had a large fall, down to 334 from 611 the previous week. 334 is well down on the values from a month or two ago as well. The average was $477.9k, just a slight drop from the value $478.5k recorded the previous week.
  7. Well, you're right, and I'm right. I'm right if it's a steady 9.5% QoQ compounding loss (1 - ((1 - 0.095)^4)), and you're right if it's a steady loss at the same dollar value for the year (9.5*4). Either way, you're doubly right that in Dr Andonomics it doesn't bear mentioning.
  8. Dr Ando has been at it again, with an unbelievable article for Sydney (if you want one for Melboure, it seems he cut and pasted the Sydney article and ignored the contradictory evidence). Let's get down to it. No doubt whatever decision the RBA makes on interest rates is positive for the market in Dr Ando's books. Rates cut? Stimulatory! Rates steady? The economy is going well, and they were not raised! Rates raised? The economy is strong and picking up, which is great for the housing market! This is all funny, because he "stars" in videos released on days of the RBA decision, and complains about rates not being cut and home owners being disappointed. Then he writes a column at the end of the week about it being positive for the housing market. Ahem. Why isn't he compariing against this time last year, rather than the end of the year? It doesn't take a genius to work that one out, with clearance rates and volumes being down year on year, and stock on the market up, and December being a seasonably weak month anyway, and the current month being seasonably strong up until Easter. But this is all par for the course for Dr Ando. Manipulation and basic fudging of data to try to prove his point. How is this a good thing? The market has too much stock! Way up year on year, and still rising. Only Dr Ando can somehow paint too much stock on the market as being somehow positive. Don't look at those SQM and RP Data stock on market reports Dr Ando, you may not like what you see... "Reasonably steady" is an interesting description in a significant drop in clearance rates week on week. In fact, all the way down to 46% for the "Super Saturday", as reported by RP Data. Of course, Dr Ando weave his magic and puts lipstick on that turd, while he polishes his pig. Get your hand off it, Dr Ando. Judging by the comments on some of his articles (thanks, Muzza), the average punter is onto Dr Ando now as well. (Note that in that article, Dr Ando said that Super Saturday would be a "test" for the market; did anyone think Dr Ando would mark it anything but a shining pass? I'd give the "test", going by RP Data results, as E for Effort. Try again next year, Dr Ando.) "House-price movements have also shown early signs of growth this year ... (APM) quarterly data has the Sydney median house price down". Seriously, all in the same paragraph. Prices are going up, trust me! (But our figures show they are going down, you can ignore that little bit.) Look into my eyes...you are getting dumber...You just can't make this sh*t up. It's almost as if Dr Ando is a send up of a spruiker. Except he's serious. Whoa, dude. I'll have what he's smoking. Maybe Dr Ando has jumped the gun on drug legalisation? Don't worry folks, panic avoided! Stay calm, be alert but not alarmed, and all that. It's fine; no house crash, because the Central Coast was up by 2%. Nothing to see here. Just that the city and east region are down by a whopping 9.5% for just the quarter! HOLY sh*t BATMAN. That's a 33% loss annualised. Nothing to f*cking see here. Everything is fine. Please move along. Please? The Central Coast is up by 2%; we're all saved. Won't you please move along? Pretty please? FINALLY. A year on year comparison, because Dr Ando could finally find something that improved. Golf clap, Dr Ando. Now, how about February? Or those pesky clearance rates? Or volumes? Or prices? Oh, that's right, the Central Coast is up 2%, so don't mind the prices. We're all saved...
  9. There's something really fishy in the withdrawn and postponed figures for Melbourne. Seriously, over 1000 auctions were planned / held, on just 4 withdrawn and 3 postponed? You have to be kidding me. Sydney had over 140 withdrawn according to RP Data!
  10. APM haven't released the pdf of their auction results for the Easter Saturday. Although they are not statistically significant, the results may still be interesting. Thanks to cobran's post above, we know the results (although statistically insignificant and apparently with some double reporting) were about 54%.
  11. RP Data's results for the "Super Saturday" week are out, and they are not good, not good at all. 46% clearance rate, well down from the 56.3% of the previous week, and well down on the adjusted 50.5% from the REINSW (although RP Data had a slightly lower sample of total auctions). Guess we might never see the final APM results for the Saturday or week released to the public... The total reported volume was up to 796 auctions + 144 withdrawn, from 465 + 49 withdrawn. Note the number of withdrawn, up to a jaw dropping 144 auctions from just 49 auctions a week before (and higher than REINSW's total 139 withdrawn, too). Guess a lot of agents knew what the score was and didn't even bother going ahead. edit: the exact RP Data results for the same week last year are not available, as I foolishly only pasted the link to their results picture, which, of course, they have now taken down. It was in the low 50s, is the best I can do.
  12. Thanks for all the well wishes!
  13. The headline clearance rate from REINSW dropped back to 59% last week from 62% and 59% the previous weeks, but it hid the real story: the adjusted clearance rate (including withdrawn and postponed) dropped significantly to 50.5% from 56.0% and 52.2% the previous weeks (the adjusted clearance rate should give an indicator for RP Data's result, as both use the same methodology). The drop in the REINSW adjusted clearance rate is fairly consistent with the drop in the clearance rate from APM. The number of unreported auctions also rose to 190, from 151, 129, and 93 in the previous weeks. The real adjusted clearance rate, when considering that more unreported are generally failed than sold, is likely to be under 50%. The average price was fairly consistent at $729k (the descrepancy in the full week's average to APM's Saturday average is rather interesting) from $727k the previous week, which was a sizeable jump from the week before that at $662k. The drop in the number of private sales was a surprise, although maybe this was due to the huge rise in auctions. The number of private sales was 611, decreasing from 648 recorded for the previous week, although these are well still up on the preceding weeks of 486, 524 and 566. The average private sale price was $478.5k, a slight drop from the $486.5k recorded the week before, and still comfortably below the values of the preceding weeks ($505.7k, $500.4k and $515.1k). It seems that the average private sales price has dropped with the increased activity over the last two weeks. The head of REINSW also said the following, to do with upcoming auctions: It seems the statistically insignificant week may be a week later than I thought.
  14. Thanks! I'll post a reminder here right before I go in a few weeks. Getting married, then on honeymoon. And thanks too, Muzza.
  15. I recommand listening to Cameron Kusher from RP Data. The video is embedded on the Marcobusiness summary of RP Data's release here. Summary: at best, expect growth in line with inflation...unless you're Melbourne, then expect weakening. March is generally a stronger month, with more transactions. Next month (April) is likely to be slightly positive, then expect tracking around flat or slightly negative from there on for a while.