Rocket

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About Rocket

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  1. This idea was first raised when after Buswell's last brainfart, when Marmion took over responsibility for new housing. It's amounted to absolutely nothing since and will be nothing but hot air this time around as well.
  2. Read more @. http://www.courierma...g-1226613925798
  3. Losses in the banking system? We have the most profitable banks in the world. Real Estate price collapse? We apparently had a minor correction and the "recovery" is now on in earnest. Yeah, apparently. Or the media specufestor hacks would be claiming annualized 10% price increases (they are here in Perth), or the property centric TV shows would be back in vogue (they are here in Australia), or the advertised price reductions shown by sites such as refind would all but disappear (they have here in West Oz). Are you sure about that? If printed money was to flow into foreign reserves, the Australian dollar would fall, the dollars we get for our exports would fall, and the prices we pay for imports would rise. We are in a very lucky position where we could actually print to dampen the AU dollar and get away with it. It's only a further reduction in official interest rates (and I personally believe they've already gone too far) that will bring back inflation any time soon. Thankfully, the window for that is small. The only real reason to lower interest rates further will be a desperate attempt to stave off a coming recession. They can't do it now, simply because they need to keep the bullets in the magazine for when they are really needed. And needed they will be. When we do finally see recession again, I would have thought that they would want to be able to reduce rates from a higher point than they currently sit at. There is a perfect recessionary storm brewing for Australia. We've gone 20 years without recession, something no other country has matched in modern monetary history. It will not last, and when it does end, it will not end with a wimper. It will end with a bang. This is the real reason we have rates so low. They know what's coming. They *are* desperate. EDIT: Paul Keating famously called our last recession "The recession we had to have". The next one will be "The recession we deserve".
  4. Because effective deposit rates with will go negative. The Reverand Joye would like us to believe that they already have. His sermon makes for an interesting read, though I'm not sure what the source for his figures are. Given the tax I pay on the interest I earn for my deposits, even with the highest rate that six figure sums can find (much higher than CJ suggests), the RBA's last rate cut made keeping money in the bank a sure lose bet. I'd be better of buying bank shares than keeping my money in one. There's a Macro Business article that suggests flows have gone negative again. That's more money being withdrawn than being deposited. So a lot of people are seeing it the same way. Rates falling another 1.5% as some suggest would ramp that right up in turn. I guess it's a good thing the banks are finding lower international lending rates of late. But that in turn risks downgrades for the banks themselves. Here's another MB article. Second chart down. That line will rise. A lot of the talk about rates falling further is just that. Talk. The RBA is more likely to start printing to satisfy international demand to dampen the dollar, than push rates lower. Do I really think this is the bottom? Yes. They might go and prove me wrong, but they don't have much room to move.
  5. Superannuation. By Baby-boomers, for Baby-boomers.
  6. Next rates movement will be upwards.
  7. Very interesting piece posted up at Business Spectator. It's a different analysis to most I've seen.
  8. Hurry up and crash already. The people who would get caught out are the ones who bought into the bullsh*t that house prices only ever rise and double in value 7-10 years. The ones that bought into the bullsh*t that land prices rising way faster than inflation or wages was reasonable and sustainable. They don't, and it's not. But they rolled the die and placed their bets anyway. Why should their bet be guaranteed or protected. There are people (raises hand) who would go out and buy a property tomorrow, paying cash, if prices reflected long term mean values. Why should we pay for the mistakes of others. We are in this position because of reserve bank and government (state and federal) mistakes and inaction. The idea that we must not have a correction (they've tried to stop it), or that it should happen over many years if it does happen (has the last five not been enough?) is folly. It's a circular argument. They need to take action to stop it reversing (return to sanity) or to have it reverse sloooooooowly because people will lose because of the action they didn't take to stop it from happening in the first place. Hurry up and crash already. Let the chips fall where they may.
  9. I liked this one in particular ...
  10. Credit Suisse goes underweight on banks due to housing bubble. I'm inclined to agree.
  11. That's not guaranteed. The words "Lack of intention" stand out there. This should not be an issue for a genuine FHB. And if they follow the rules and advise of changed circumstances, then their case would likely be considered accordingly.
  12. Read it again. 16.5% of all new mortgages are interest only investor loans. 13.5% of all new mortgages are interest only non-investor loans. Or to put it another way, 13.5% of new mortgage holders expect their future equity to be provided by capital gains alone.
  13. Does an online dictionary count?
  14. Smug?