Mr Medved

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Everything posted by Mr Medved

  1. I have been noticing that the RUB has been increasing lately. I don't think it is commodity-related (yet) though. Is there a differentiation between hard and soft commodities?
  2. After spending a day in Beijing renewables don't seem so bad even if more expensive. I'd hate to live there, but commentary is for the travel thread when I get around to it.
  3. I think I understand the sentiment against Huawai. It is ok for our guys (Cisco/Echelon/NSA,etc.) to spy on us, but not for their guys (Huawai,CCP,etc.) to spy on us. The thing is, it's only a matter of time the CCP becomes us. So it is delaying the inevitable while pushing up the price of connectivity. I don't think I've read any articles on the Christchurch shooting that described victims as New Zealanders. I think that says a lot on how the media has portrayed the events (or they weren't New Zealanders).
  5. Are Corrupt Chinese Officials Turning Off Crime-Fighting AI Because It Works Too Well?
  6. Nah he was dating a different one. Apparently the country is full of princesses, never been there myself to validate.
  7. Hey Swaize have you shacked up with a Polish princess yet? I'll be in Eastern Europe next month (pending visa approval).
  8. If this is a student-only accommodation then there may be restrictions on how the property is used. It is right next to Swinburne University. It's also a dog box.
  9. I'll whinge because that gets you a studio apartment anywhere decent in Melbourne (and last I checked won't get you a house anywhere).
  10. Melbourne Housing Prices Plummet At Fastest Quarterly Pace Ever Recorded; Sydney Enters "New Territory"
  11. Clearly you should not work on a roof when it is hot.
  12. Which is worse, living in Canberra or 38 degrees @ 8pm?
  13. hrm... ... ...
  14. So with the new year I have decided to only eat one meal a day - and only drink water during the day, not beer. I don't really get hungry but am so used to oral stimulation that I'm looking to stick something in my mouth even when I don't need food. The alternatives have been drinking water and brushing my teeth. So far so good a week into the new routine. I think food is over-rated. I just did a gym workout, roughly two hours, and hadn't eaten for 20 hours prior to the session. I didn't notice much/any difference in my ability to lift or do HIIT on an exercise bike. I think if this sticks and I don't have any issues then I may cut down to five meals a week.
  15. They have long AUD/USD as a "Costanza trade" for 2019. Charts in the linked article: 7) Long Aussie$ A slowing Chinese economy and therefore slowing commodity demand, trade wars, and a decelerating domestic housing market have all led to a steady decline in the Oz in 2018. Will keep this one short and sweet, as it is really the same idea as the other long risk asset trades. The AUD will really benefit from anything positive around the China/Trade War negotiations. Some sort of deal and the Aussie$ will scream higher. It’s that simple. There is one micro issue Costanza should be concerned about and that is the Interest Only (IO) refi wave which will convert those IO mortgages into principle + interest loans. The reset wave started in 2018 and will increase in intensity in 2019. This will cause the average borrower to pay about $7,000 more per year in additional payments. That is a major hit to the housing market via delinquencies, and may be a crushing blow to consumers’ discretionary spending. The one saving grace for Australia has been the RBA remaining on hold for (jokingly) 37,000 consecutive meetings. As the below chart shows, at this level of housing collapse, the RBA tends to cut. Source: AMP Instinct: Australia has felt the effects of the China slowdown and trade wars, along with its own domestic issues. The currency will need to continue to depreciate to offset that pain. Costanza: the equity market weakness will force Trump to play ball with the Chinese which will reverse the AUD higher. Additionally, the new economic weakness in the US and a Fed that could move to cut rates should weaken the USD. Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 55%. Basically a better long than FANGs and credit, as being long AUD$ could also benefit if the Fed moves to an outright easing bias (which will depreciate the USD vs. the AUD). Apparently, long USD is now the most crowded trade in the market (according to a BAML survey). A housing crisis in Australia will be the major headwind for the Costanza long.
  16. "more in line with developing countries"... haha most people haven't woken up to the fact that Australia has devolved to the status of a developing country.
  17. It could be worse - your place could go to practically zero! Merry Christmas!
  18. With so much flaming I think this thread is responsible for global warming. Pass the marshmellows...
  19. Trump Slayer combo!
  20. Dio - Stand up and shout... maybe the anthem in France at the moment.