Mr Medved

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Everything posted by Mr Medved

  1. The economy in Australia has been hammered, there's perhaps a lag but it's bad. Construction industry will drop off substantially later in the year. Travel and tourism is dead. If borders don't open the "education sector" will be whacked. Hospitality and entertainment sectors will have venues permanently closed. China may impose more tariffs. Then there's the debt, both public and private. Where's the debt growth coming from to keep the Aussie dream alive? Sentiment is the key, we'll need to pull out the Reject the Recession dancers again. But I don't see companies rushing to hire, and from my experience in the first three months of the year is that opportunities evaporated like mist and may not pop up again. Although I've been hanging out for mega bargains and they haven't come yet. Maybe EOFY will be the time.
  2. I would not want to be in the hospitality industry right now. I went to the CBD on the weekend and it was dead. Not sure how fast things will pick up even if official restrictions are relaxed or lifted.
  3. Thanks for the support, only a six month gig but better than nothing. Working on something on the side but will be a long road before I see (decent) money in it... not sure which is worse to deal with - the corporate world or the music industry.
  4. I am so insulated from really stupid people most of the time, and even more so now, that I sometimes forget how dumb some people can be. And the world is full of them. But arseholes are worse. So hibernating at home most of the time is not so bad. And anyone who disagrees with me is clearly of low IQ.
  5. Any news on the rental markets? I was thinking of negotiating a rental reduction. Seems like quite a few people are on the move in my area and I assume the residential rental market is pretty soft at the minute. I'm on a month-to-month lease so they could turn around and give me a notice to vacate, but I understand evictions are forbidden now by the Federal government? There's a place I was previously interested in renting that's now on the market. Based on oldlistings.com.au it seems like the owner has dropped rents below what was advertised in 2013. I reckon they may even go lower. But it's a pain to move places, especially with kids, so I think I'd prefer a rental reduction. Good news is I started a new job last week. Good to have cash flow after a year of very, very little.
  6. I have the opposite but complimentary theory that hot countries produce hot heads or brain-fried individuals. Think southern USA, Middle East, Afghanistan, much of Africa, etc. I can't remember the source but there was an evolutionary theory that those in cold, dark climates have higher IQ because of the survival aspect during winter. Somewhat plausible given IQ levels in North Asia and Scandinavia, and IIRC Ashkenazi Jews originated from modern-day Ukraine.
  7. https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mrpresident-open-economy-now-martin-armstrong-warns-theres-another-agenda-going
  8. There were some cyclers who were quite testy when I went on a walk with my kids. One said "move over!" (not sure if directed at me), another scolded a guy who stopped with his young daughter, "get off the path!" I was kind of taken aback by their rudeness. Everybody seems panicky as if they think I'm going to rob them at knife point.
  9. Yes - getting money in easy, getting it out is harder. I know someone who pulled money out recently but they were in country. Not sure if it was physical cash or wire transfer. On gold, for me I view it as insurance policy more than an investment portfolio. I was around on the GHPC forum in 2009 like most here, were you on that too?
  10. I think shares will be a good play but not yet. I'd like to see a massive drop first... at least 80% from the peak. Got a feeling Japanese officials were lying about their epidemic stats to get the Olympics up and running, so won't be surprised if things get worse there before they get better. I watch the RUB a little bit. Seems to have held up well until the start of March, then dropped to massive lows against the USD. Not quite all time new lows (80.3336 now, 83.8344 in Jan 2016), I wonder how much traders were sweating if that broke...
  11. Haha... sounds like a mate of mine. In the space of about a month he evacuated several times due to bush fires, dealt with landslides and floods, struck down by an unknown virus pre-Wuhan outbreak, and his wife was bitten by a deadly snake. Now his business has been shut down by the government due to the panic! Probably for six months. Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. I hope they weren't Bezos-like photo leaks. Have the Canadians freaked out or are they taking it in their stride? Just as a time marker (from the post in October), gold got up to 2700 AUD but has eased a bit. That's almost +500 AUD since October. If it has a similar run as in the GFC it should get close to 3000 AUD. AUD/USD has dropped from around 0.70 to 0.59, so my liquid investments have held up well in the short-term.
  12. Apparently oil is in contango. If only I had a tanker! https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tanker-tantrum-how-crudes-record-contango-has-created-greatest-trade-decades With many countries banning food exports I expect commodity prices to increase. Long oil and food.
  13. Soft commodities may perform well. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-food-security/panic-buying-lockdowns-may-drive-world-food-inflation-fao-analysts-idUSKBN21808G
  14. I went to an office on Tuesday. It was a like sci fi movie. I rocked up before 9am. The queue was stretched around the corner and down the road. Very glad I took a novel with me. Standing in the sun reading a book wasn't all bad. A man and woman in police uniforms came by once. One made a comment to the effect "all we ask is that you keep your distance." When I finally got to the door I followed the guy in front of me. The security guy, clearly from India, started barking frantically something at me in a strong accent, clearly distressed. I stopped to try to comprehend the incomprehensible. He was trying to tell me that I couldn't enter the building yet. So I waited in the entrance. He was afraid that someone would touch me, and requested I stood in the corner. Shortly later I entered the building. There were pieces of tape on the floor for the queue, all on a diagonal angle. I stepped on either side of the diagonal, and in an instance I had a security officer telling me to stand back in a panicked tone. I finally made it to the concierge desk where the woman was freaking out as if she was a bank teller being robbed. After I sat down I watched her repeat her frantic cries of "stay behind the line!" and "don't give me anything!" and "have you been overseas in the last fourteen days?!" One elderly chinaman wearing a face mask indicated he had. It was like preparations for emergency evacuations from a burning building. I stopped reading my book to observe the environment. All the staff were paranoid, as if they were to be randomly selected for execution. Everyone visiting the building was quiet and docile, not fearing to trigger an alarm for breaching the superstitious covenant of "social distancing." I was finally called by a staff member and was led to a desk. Well not to a desk. I was escorted to a chair placed behind a diagonal line on the floor. I did not dare move the chair for fear a SWAT team would descend upon me. I explained to the man that I could not submit a claim online because the system had been down for several days. He said he could not do anything, and that I should do everything online. He repeated that I should submit a claim online. Clearly progress wasn't a possible outcome. I asked him what he could do. He said he could leave a note on the system. Two hours of my life for a note. At least The Bourne Identity is a good read. But I think Asimov or Orwell would have been more appropriate. I get the impression the whole country is going insane. There is a virus that has already infected 99% of the population - fear. It is far more devastating than one from Wuhan.
  15. Anders you may be wrong. I've heard the government is on the precipice of announcing a full lockdown (in Australia). May last six months. I'm not happy at all. The government has directly cost me job opportunities and I'm out of work now, burning savings. I have friends whose companies have had to shut down. They are destroying the economy on something they cannot stop or control. "It became necessary to destroy the town to save it."
  16. The bigger issue will be production of supplies. Where are they currently manufactured? Who owns the patents? Could be an investment opportunity.
  17. I've pulled most of the cash out of my Aussie bank accounts. But oil looks to be a very nice play. What's the best way to get exposure? It could be down a while but it looks like it's going to hit generational lows. If you haven't checked out the In the Interests of the People YouTube channel it's worth checking out. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzwmB2wn8Slp3hko2Gpj2iA
  18. It's bloody annoying timing. I have one position waiting for a police check to clear (not surprised if the AFP are busy right now and de-prioritising checks), another position I haven't heard back since my second round interview last week (assuming they're caught up with everything), and a third position the hiring manager wants to interview me but can't advertise the role because of the virus/panic. I could be picking from three offers, now everything is held up. A month earlier and no issues! There's another contracting opportunity or two that seem to have gone cold because of all the calamities. I loaded up on USD in 2017-18 when it was around 0.75 AUD/USD, now it's around 0.58 and dropping like a stone. I started stacking XAU in 2009 when it was around 1100, now over 2500. So my defensive assets have held up well. I just need cash flow. I think a lot of people/businesses are going to be hit hard with the decline in the velocity of money. Liquidity seems to be the key right now. If you can sit on the sidelines with cash there are going to be some amazing bargains... some falling knives too but great opportunities if you pick the right timing... maybe @Swaize has some Socrates updates for us. How is everyone else responding? (other than stocking up on toilet papers, pasta and guns/ammo... haha)
  19. Fortunately I was right royally spooked by the last meltdown over a decade ago so the cupboards are fully stocked. Unfortunately I couldn't fit my chest freezer in my current place, so may run low on meat unless I can stock up regularly. Same with bread but that's only for the kids. The bigger problem I face is that I'm currently unemployed and waiting to be onboarded into a new role. Another place may offer me a contract, and another seemingly wants to hire me but is being held up by the Wuhan virus outbreak.
  20. What's everybody buying? Toilet paper stocks. I'm still recovering from reverberations following divorce and a contracting desert, so not much buying. If I did have money I'd be keeping a close eye on getting on the long side of oil prices. It may drop further but I think we'll see generational lows. Food demand has dropped off, I was told exporters have had their orders drop by 25-50%. So we could see commodities drop further, but eventually it will need to go back up because people need to eat. So keep an eye on soft commodities. The AUD is going to tank even more, so either get out or look to buy shares... but I think wait for 80+% drop from the peak. I remember Greece went down 90% before doubling in the following year. The Asian crisis there was a similar type of drop. Share markets usually don't go to zero, though some companies will go out of business. Airliners will probably continue to be hammered, so you could look to buy into the state-backed ones when technicals point to the upside. Their financials are getting slaughtered but at some point global trade will resume and so will travel. I'd stay away from anything illiquid - real estate fits that bill. A mate just sold his property, was on the market for ages. I just don't think it's a wise investment. There is the possibility that foreigners will be scared off and the elderly start dying from the virus, so demand has to drop. Where is credit going to bubble from? Can't see it. @Swaize will have the inside running on all of this.
  21. All you need is an epidemic in China and no worries about emissions! https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/theres-no-pollution-nasa-satellite-images-expose-chinas-production-has-resumed-false
  22. I don't mind people expressing different viewpoints. I don't think it's helpful to shut down conversation, but one should recognise when an immovable object meets an irresistible force. Oh, and it's happy happy joy joy as climate alarmism has been knocked off the news thanks to a pandemic virus that is about to sweep the globe. As an aside I've been watching it closely and am of the view it will unavoidably spread throughout the world. Some experts are predicting 50-70% of the global population will catch the virus and I tend to agree based on what I have observed. It will be more about case management... the scary thing is that many symptoms are treatable but hospitals are overwhelmed so have to turn away patients... and they die due to lack of medical treatment.
  23. From memory the Dow Jones normally performs well in USA election years, though I could be wrong about that.
  24. I thought it was sell in May and go away... when is the turning point forecasted?
  25. LOL: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/glacier-park-montana-set-remove-glaciers-will-all-be-gone-2020-signs I'd happily support a reforestation program to counter the deforestation that has happened in the last few centuries (in particular). I think we're going to have to do that anyway to some extent.