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Everything posted by Swaize

  1. Its funny to realize we are all prone to do this, predict rising prices while prices are rising, or hotter climate every year will make us paint scenarios of deserts Thats how manias like bitcoin can happen. I predicted the bitcoin top and went out, because i could feel the mania happen inside myself, all the optimism i suddenly felt was a huge warning sign, we can use that knowledge to our advantage in the next gold and commodity bullmarket
  2. Still my opinion.
  3. Yes cheap is a good start, hated, neglected. But also there needs to be a push for it to rise soon, otherwise it can be 3 years til it moves. Or one buys on obvious nice buy signals. With commdities im unhappy because they are traded in dollars and when the dollar rises, they might get whacked down. After the dollar peaks, circumstances are much better, then you got no more headwind That would be in 2-4 years according to marty In my experience i made tons of money when i followed current bullmarkets and got out again before or after the top. Its much quicker since its already rising. So say, gold goes above 1362, then the low was 3 years ago, so its a current bullmarket since many years.
  4. i thought about it again: say a company has a certain costs and a certain profit margin and say they earn 12% per year then if you have 100$ of stocks you get 12$ per year when inflation rises and rises, their costs rise and they get a bit squeezed and also bonds might then give 8% so their 12% doesnt look as good anymore but since rates keep rising you also dont want bonds! as the bonds of next year bear more interest than yours. real estate should be really bad at the first 5 years since people go bankrubt with rising rates!!! so houses come to market. so there is really only one thing to invest in: tangibles, commodities, prices of things that rise because costs to make them rise! if you own a farm and your costs rise, that sucks. but if you just own wheat itself then its price rises with rising costs to produce it.
  5. Bonds are in bad trouble when rates rise, cause the rates on YOUR bonds doesnt rise, only on NEW issues, so your bond has a low interest per year which then sucks compared to the new higher ones. In my opinion stocks are quite high so i would advise to only TRADE them not to buy and hold them. Im struggling myself to find investment opportunities actually. Commodities are historically cheap now....
  6. yes thats an added benefit that: 1. socrates predicts acommodity rally into roughly 2024 2. socrates predicts cooling, which in europe can be bad for crops
  7. yes that can work if one times it and shorts on the highs. i also thought, commodities could rise when interest rates and inflation rise? but the logic is so convoluted, im not sure.... it seems like no reference to history can be made as its always different circumstances... 1970s-1981 had high inflation worldwide even switzerland 20% per year. House prices did veeeery badly. commodities held up with inflation, so leverage should make it awesome! like 2x ETFs but they rise in spike-moves so gotta time it.
  8. looking forward to hearing from Cambodia Tor medved, bishkek and almaty? i never thought about these places, but now i will actually once had a girlfriend from bishkek, she was a real witch (not in caracter but an actual witch) cobran, laos and borneo, interesting Now i have lots of ideas for winter thats great! Thanks guys Right now im in Poznan, love it here, suprisingly nice weather, beautiful women.
  9. im still trying to figure out how to profit from the rising rates and cant come up with much. Ideas? can be longterm
  10. WHAT you can actually walk away from a house by just leaving and the bank has to take it back and you dont owe anything anymore?? even if the house value is lower than what is owed (due to prices that fell)
  11. yeah brazil had bad years cause of low soja price venezuela cause of low oil price now argentina is toasting but the low for that region should be 2018-2021 and it should be bought, as 2024 is a commodity HIGH! and south america has lots of growing potential anyway. As for banks, get usd cash 50$ notes get gold physical get local currency cash Maby some water, some food(dont overdo it and store food you actually eat anyway and keep eating and renewing) IF there is a pandemic in 2019-2020 like marty thinks, stay healthy
  12. how is asia and what places were nice? reccomendations? in south america, many friends liked colombia and costa rica (i have never been) in europe stunning women in oslo, nice party vibe in holland, nice old town vienna(touristic) nice food in france also castles , very cheap places in the balkan-romania area also lots of wilderness (need a car and maby visa) budapest cheap and nice old-f*cked up-charm rustic if you like drinking and pubs, then scotland and ireland
  13. maby theres one local to Perth? according to this: https://reiwa.com.au/the-wa-market/perth-metro/ perth real estate peaked longtime ago and isnt in a bubble therefore the banks should be safe
  14. Yeah thats gone, but there are other gems right now waiting to be travelled in your area of the world, you got all of asia
  15. with the coming banking crysis i expect people around the world going crazy for physical gold coins! imagine the mess, especially in europe when governments go bust AND banks go bust, no one can save no one, so people will go to cash and gold and land and food storage and dollars! you cant imagine HOW bankrubt for example italian banks are! thats double the population of australia trying to get into real assets like gold! this will be historical
  16. gold seems to have bottomed and everyone is now waiting for the breakout. will be interesting how this combines with the dollar rise. silver has a yearly turnpoint in 2018 which could be a low. so by november this year, things will get really interesting!!! personally im long and expect a breakout abovve the sideways range by 2019 and new highs by 2024
  17. marty sees consolidation into june, euro has peaked, dollar might have bottomed and dollar WILL RALLY INTO 2021 this will be historic latin america will totally suffer, imagine the deflation! asias corporations also borrow in dollars a lot, ouch. watch the hongkong peg breaking!
  18. lived in spain for 2 months lately, wow SUCH a dead country, you can just feel it!!! they now close down children playgrounds to convert them to dog playgrounds as there are more dogs than children in the city, no joke! barcelona was ONLY tourists, have never seen something like that. just a terrible country. i loved porto, real chilled, cooler climate than lissabon.
  19. australias banks are fully in real estate you guys should start banking elsewhere, spread your risk!!! look for banks who lend mostly to mining companies in the west, as mining should improve from now on.
  20. Originally marty suggested 2016 should be the peak for highend real estate. Seems he was 1.5years off. Then in september-november 2017 he wrote this is it, highend real estate should be sold immediatly and is crashing. Now after the 1.st quarter 2018 numbers are in, we see the decline and trend change! 8% down in New York The next low should be 2033 so get ready to buy again within our lifetimes cause by then we will need cash to buy, not credit
  21. Now with rising rates, Im asking myself, What to invest in next? money can only go to stocks or commodities or cash. Cash according to martin armstrong will be best in us dollars for the next few years. So stocks and commodities to figure out.
  22. Oh thats a bad situation. So... its really happening right? The bubble that mever popped, has now popped? Auszralian real estate is changing trend after what? 50years?
  23. Cool, so thats the way to go thank you Just saw this article that says newyork high end real estate plunged 8% and sales plunged 25% most in a decade and sales now as low as 2012! https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/new-yorks-luxury-real-estate-market-is-in-correction.html Seems to me its happening, with the rising rates and worsening law situation. Thats a big shift. So momey might flow out of real estate and out of bonds for many years! It can only go to companies or commodities/land or cash
  24. Well marty focuses on europe, which is smart cause there we got data. Its more scientific that way. This winter DEFINITELY got much colder than usual also in the usa. Spring, feb march was also much colder. I think it was Dezember? Or january? that was warm/mild in some european countries. -14C° MAX daytime temp freezes phone holding fingers immediatly, i now know everything below 6C° is only fun with snow sun and good wool clothing. I might return to my routine of spending winters elsewhere. I want to thank you guys for tips, i started doing some sport and feel better
  25. Silver "The important number on the upside is $18.90. A monthly and quarterly closing above this number will signal that we are start to move to the upside to test the major numbers at $21.63 and $23.10. The equivalent to the breakout number of significant is $21.63." so here marty is looking at defining what the signal is for the next silver bullmarket! Dow Jones "We did not elect the key Weekly Bearish Reversal which remains at 23250. Had we elected that one, then we should expect immediate follow-through. We can bounce into tomorrow and then turn down into next week. Creating a low the week of 04/02 would ideally bounce thereafter. It does appear that we should test the monthly support level 22415. The question becomes when, the week of 04/02 or at the end of the month. A rally into next week would then imply a declining trend into the end of the month and that could spill-over into May intraday but then rally leaving April as the lowest close." I want to state two things here: The quarterly silver reversals i just gave you all, are basically marty saying, when silver closes a quarter above 18.90$ the bullmarket starts! Its like a prediction. 21.63$ quarterly close is the second buy signal, saying, DUDE silver is going up now over the next years! So this is Marty predicting the next bullmarket and also giving 2 buy signals to get in!!! In 2024 we can review this and go:" thank god i sold real estate bavk then and bought silver! And the second thing i wanna say is, Marty expects a Dollar high around 2021 so if we get the silver buy signal 2018,2019 then look out for the dollar rallye and brace, or if we get the signal AFTER the dollar rallye then buy silver with both hands