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Everything posted by Swaize

  1. There are 100.000 students in my city and the city center is about 1500meters.....and i live in the middle For the russian interested, the ruble has a quarterly turnpoint 1.st quarter 2020 and the yearly bullish for the ruble is 7992 against the dollar Every year marty gets more bullish commodities, first it was "prepare for the breakdown" then it was "ah nothing before 2018" now its "2019 and onward" and soon is 2020 so marty will start to shift towards commodities and said canada australia russia and latin america should "turn up again" So guys, start making lists of nice companies and prepare to be buying the dips! I just recently sold all my silver/gold exposure and bought platinum but will buy again gold silver sugar wheat and so on on each dip into 2022 Socrates is online but a bit expensive especially if you wanna dabble in many markets! I was lucky to have had the crazy access back in 2016 on the whole world.
  2. actually not much feedback, im a bit disconnected to the guys as we been waiting for this since 2015 haha thats 4 years now! hey australia has panic cycle this year, should get some action
  3. And December was the low hows it going guys? The REAL socrates is now secretly online, i couldnt try yet cause my credit card gets declined for some reason, but friends tried.
  4. Zaph so youre saying in this huge rallye of real estate, you bought 7 years ago and still renting is about even compared to buying? Not much profit?
  5. The Dax turnpoint of october seemed to have caught the high. djia buy Signal from the slide of conference buy the dow on weekly close 26965 and monthly close 25588 DJIA
  6. True, i hear from some people in some countries that the anti foreigner sentiment is rising probably in australia for chinese, in china for westerners, in europe maby too, That means if im a foreigner then that also sucks, but honestly, if you got a nice social circle with locals, then it doesnt matter so much. There is always a group of open mided people somewhere I mean, absent cultural revolution in china, jew killing nazis, and the like. And the jews were safe in america so no big deal and china was a sh*thole then anyway so good to leave. I think if you go to Singapore this wont happen to you that you get killed for being white. if you go to GOOD places with future and growth and openness (like america back in the day)
  7. Well you cant forget that especially young voters are full of leftist lesbian vegans which are all about, saving the planet, we are all one, stop consumerism, stop global warming (school protests today in australia?) The new militants are now in many countries the Green Party! like in Italy The counter is in many countries anti immigrants, like AfD or in Italy the North League (who wants to drive out the Roma population) So you have left environmentalists (and we know how rational they are...) and people who generally dont like immigrants out of principle Common sense is lost to both... Another problem is that trough social media, extreme comments get more attention. Plus the IQ in many places is sinking just low enough that most people (and brainwashed students) dont really understand complex subjects anymore! In science too, the culture changed towards just getting funding instead of making REAL research. I mean.... probably politics has OFTEN been like that, just childish and stupid debates instead of ACTUAL FACTS and debate trying to get to the BEST SOLUTION for the FUTURE of the country. In China they make 5 year plans. In Singapore some plan for decades. In Europe? I cant remember the last time i heard a politician think like that, otherwise the Pension debate would look REALLY DIFFERENT and there would be more talk of soon-to-be empty buildings. Talkshows could be about REAL ISSUES instead of a guy who f*cked 3 women at the same time.... There could be debate clubs. Forming an opinion together based on facts. I think its not even the politicians fault. I think the human species is just a TAD too stupid honestly. Germany has one of the higher average IQs but that means most of the World and all of Africa simply isnt smart enough to even have the low-quality debates Germany has. Then add that most countries arent exactly very democratic.... people just have too little influence! So it seems to me there is just no-one on the steering wheel! Just get out of harms way when the car rolls towards a cliff
  8. That seems to be unfolding now....maby into 2021 or even 2024
  9. Martin Armstrongs trades that are upcoming are i think: Trade a possible DJIA breakout Trade a strong Dollar against EM currencies and the EURO Shorting Banks Shorting Bonds especially Municipal
  10. Yeah time to get outta here... Just.... not that many good options...
  11. Yes as interest rates rise, we can se a REAL crash in real estate. Marty still sees the dollar rally A LOT by 2021 Measured in Dollars then, Marty sees the commodity bull market start mostly AFTER the dollar rallye
  12. Anyone been to the WEC conference?
  13. Actually angela merkel is about to be replaced by a guy from blackrock Thats like the successor to goldman sachs So...no hope for politics sorry. Just so many people who think something is wrong and so many answers WHAT is wrong and WHY but none are really correct. No joke, italys biggest party was/is a GREEN ECO party! so they now decide based on ecology not business or economic sense..... just bad. I will now try not to talk about politics in europe anymore in my life. Hard i know, but necessary for my nerves. And to be on topic, i realized australian real estate is measured in AUD but the AUD is itself in a 7 year downtrend?
  14. I think Europe is f*ckED for a LOOOOOOONG time. And im not talking about spain and greece, those are f*cked SINCE a looong time lol Im talking about the healthy ones like Czech, Poland, Germany, England, Holland these are the ones with low unemployment right now. (basically all the Germanic genetic regions are healthy, oh the coincidence, and the greeks who got overrun by turks and the spanish who got overrun by muslems have sh*tty economies, bad sign now that Austria and Germany are ALSO overrun by africans and middle-easterns......) In 10years when the next crysis is over, then the fixed interest loans will have run out and become changeable interest loans. So thats 2028, add maby 5y housing downturn to that and you arrive 2033 which is martys real estate cycle low! Oh... have i mentioned that maaaany swiss pension funds invested heavily in Real Estate because Bonds were not yielding anything....and swiss private people took their pension savings and put them into RealEstate too....
  15. You can watch those numbers to see when the action starts: Netflix: First of all, let me say, there are still bugs in Socrates: today it shows a ridiculous number for the japanese yen. And on netflix there is also one mistake in numbers, where it says 0,29% up in 4 weeks is a phenomenal rise The globalmarket watch said october important low, for netflix a year-end closing below 19196 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 becomes possible. our technical resistance stands at 32468 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 40337 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 29261. This provides a 27% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 42322 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 23610. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 44%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 31084, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in NetFlix Inc so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during October. Critical support still underlies this market at 23610 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible Want more? NASDAQ Index: our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 927394 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 708482 Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 744200 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 680595. (( another huuuge mistake: Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2482 weeks )) monthly market watch says, preparing for breakout for this month..... Dow: We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2022. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 2471922 which is bullish Our projected resistance stands above the market at 2590679 and a closing above that is necessary to signal any strong further upside advance. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2990642 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2410123. This provides a 19% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 2661672 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2399720. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 9.84%
  16. marty still thinks, this will be a runaway bullmarket, no new lows.
  17. Now in the swiss mountains prices tumble. Switzerland was so far not hit by ANY real estate slowdown since 1980s Prices since 2007 are someplaces up by 50% But since july 2017 prices are FLAT: https://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/kurse-produkte/indizes/detail/?ID_NOTATION=7910625 There were still some regions with price growth up from last year but much less than usual. We are now at the flat-peaking phase. I think its safe to say, that when rates rise in Switzerland, prices will come down. And in a -0,5% interest environment that will have quite crazy effects on downpayment of million dollar houses. Maby fun stat: average rent for 100m2 is 2165Chf so 3000 AUD per 100m2 rent Average price for an appartment in Z├╝rich was 1million Chf last year. So about 1.5million AUD for an average appartment. The average houshold, so one woman one man working, has to work for 10 years to get enough money for a credit, so age 25 out of uni, at 35 get credit, after 10 year fixed interest die on the then high interest rates at age 45 That explains why the average age for a baby is so high, when people can only afford a house at age 35 but both have to work to pay down the loan. And 42h per week is normal and 1h to go to work is normal, so not much time left to actually see the child.
  18. Yeah well after 30 awesome years, a big crysis and then maby another 30 so so years. Thats just the normal pattern, in Germany they had now the 30 so so years and economists on youtube argue over why the years were only soso and how they could return to the good years again, what system they need, while allthewhile being totally blind that now the quite bad 30 years come! So just step out of the way of the rolling big snowballs of doom and you will be fine again after the crysis. Commodities will rally, you have low public debts so after the banks swollow the bad pill or the government bails them out, it will be quite okay again Remember, as long as you got a job that just pays every month, then you dont care how unemployment rises or sales slump. Just stay in there. Then when government suffocates on the now high debt like europe, then you gotta start getting out of there.
  19. The dollars turnpoint against the euro its definitely 2021 2023/24 will be commodities REALLY moving, a genuine commodity bullmarket, irrespective or currencies. droughts will make food go up, there will be inflation, all the good stuff (says marty) probably accompanied by a weaker dollar, as this is after martys expected dollar super-high
  20. thats also when marty expects a big high in us dollar. so buckle up, for some crazy times, also as china unwinds which was a big boost for australia that could now fall away.
  21. So you have a polish girlfriend who is awesome in martial arts and you fight together trough the world Pretty cool If you want, you can make it so that, If you have residency in a place without capital gains tax, then you can cut the investment tax.
  22. I just realized i made a mistake, by believing local statistics. Of course the pound dropped IMMENSLY!!! From 2014 at 0,60 to USD to 0,80 to USD today So maby the REAL high wasnt early 2017 but actually earlier. So during a short term, maby 2 year timeframe, a falling currency can kill all profits in real estate in real terms. @cobran20 i just checked the old yearly arrays on commodities again and around the years 2023/24 all commodities have big turnpoints, oil, corn, copper, gold you name it The next coming up for gold is 2020 (ny spot gold) The next for silver is 2021
  23. i checked the governments statistic and can NOT find ANY nationwide decline of any significance. That is regarding price. But new builds slowed by 2% And really BAD is the SALES fell by 9% over last year So first less gets sold, then less gets built, then prices come down it seems. The last step is still missing from data. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-may-2018 " Despite the falls in London, property prices in the capital are only 3% below the record highs achieved in early 2017, and are still 50% higher than they were in 2007 before the financial crisis. " By the way early 2017 is about 1 year later than Martin Armstrong predicted the peak in the "luxury real estate market" Interest rates in Europe peaked about mid 2016 which is about 8 months later than Martin Armstrong predicted. All in all pretty good job i think. So if he was right on that, then be worried about his prediction of doubling, tripling interest rates within a few years.
  24. Yes on some charts house prices are declining since 12months already, usually the worst of the decline is finished after 2-5years historically. But trying to sell while its going down is harder. That means by about 2022 a couple Australian banks should have gone bust, choked by non-permorming real estate loans. And credits to cobran, this will help: " of the $706 billion worth of new home loans approved in 2014-15, a worrying 42 per cent of them were for interest-only repayment arrangements. And more than 900,000 of them will begin expiring from January, reverting to principal and interest payments. Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, said it would add an average of $400 extra per month to repayments. "
  25. We can argue about which bank will drop dead first Tor, why do you pay taxes in 3 countries? I thought you pay were you are resident. Or do you have houses in all kind of places?