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Everything posted by Swaize

  1. So can we get an overview of all european rates in chart format and see which ones are rising?
  2. Some people like that game I think bill gross went down by buying russian bonds....
  3. Well 7% interest rate in dollars is NICE! Its like beating most other hedgefunds just by sitting on your hands for a year. Who could have known that argentina defaults within a year? Not even i am soooo pessimistic. I would have given them til 2021 when martys dollar rally is scheduled. Maby by then Mexico defaults on its 100 year bonds haha
  4. I think the real fun of investing in real estate is when you only put in 20% of capital the rest financed by credit and the house price increases 30% over 5 years in value then you sell, it means: 100k from my pocket 400k from bank 500k value then 30% increase of value -> 650k 650k new value but 400k to the bank and 250k for me My 100k became 250k in 5 years thats 20% annual gains on my capital!!! Its like buying a warrant or leveraged futures on the house price. I think thats where the fun is during this Real Estate boom that we had in the world. And from now on, the losses will be leveraged AND the higher interest rates will blow the monthly budget out the roof!!!
  5. If the reversals GOT or GET elected then yes, USA stocks down.
  6. Well....you make it sound toooo reasonable, actually it was like this: " in 2017, The new bond had a coupon of 7.125 percent, the finance ministry said in a statement that hailed success of the sale as evidence that Argentina had regained "credibility and confidence." Still, the move came as a surprise given Argentina only last year ended a decade-long dispute with creditors over its 2002 default " " Though the 100-year bond appeared to be well oversubscribed, some investors questioned the wisdom of investing for a such a long term in a country as volatile as Argentina. "It's awfully premature for Argentina to issue 100-year bonds," said Jorge Piedrahita, chief executive officer of Puma Investments. "When you look back in history, I'm not sure we can find a 20-year period where Argentina has not defaulted." Citigroup Inc and HSBC acted as lead book runners on the deal, while Nomura Securities and Banco Santander were co-managers. " " When Argentina issued its so-called “century bond” in June 2017, many held it up as the peak of bull market insanity. After all, what sane individual lends money for 100 years to a serial-defaulter? After the Latin American country began discussions with the International Monerary Fund in May2018 the schadenfreude in some quarters was palpable! They managed to default on 100-year Bonds within 1 year.... " I understand, that those 100-year bonds were dollar denominated. " The pain has been particularly acute for investors of the country’s 100-year bonds. Their price dropped to 91 cents on the dollar from 103 cents at the end of last year as traders unnerved by the prospect of rising U.S. interest rates dumped securities with long maturities. Overall, the country’s dollar-denominated bonds lost 2.1 percent over the first four days of the week, leaving them down more than 6 percent on the year, the worst performance in emerging markets, " Mexico issued a 100-year bond in 2010......
  7. good question, will dig for some Reversals which will confirm direction. EDIT: " In the Cash S&P500, a weekly closing back below the 282500 level will warn of a correction perhaps into October. " " In the NASDAQ, a month-end close today below 744300 would signal a collapse is likely into November. We need a closing today ABOVE 763730 to imply the market can possibly hold. A failure to close above that number will also imply that we can crash into November. " with "TODAY" marty means monthly close of august for nasdaq Gold elected the monthly major bearish, but its the benchmarks again (like in december2015) so maby there will be no follow trough, but nonetheless the major bearish monthly reversal got elected a day ago! Very bad. Marty says:" We can see that gold continues to consolidate. The Monthly Bearish is down at 1194 " socrates says, january is (again) a big turnpoint The Monthly Bullish Reversal stands up at 1271 and 1362.50 The german DAX has a good turnpoint in October The EUR / USD has a good turnpoint in January2019
  8. Socrates had a BIG turnpoint in 20.August and the next is November/December, so we can expect a move into November/December now in the USA Stock market!
  9. It will be interesting if we can get a crysis in a few years where Bonds decline, like 1931 where first bonds rallied as the economy went down but then also crashed hard or were inflated away, depending on the currency but either way, lost value.
  10. I guess what politicians say and actually what most people say is one thing and what they do, is another. Integrity is when both allign.
  11. Absolutely.......for many Asians Most Asian countries dont have pensions and have a small % old people Who controlled all trade? The british! Who was rich? The british! Then what happened? War and financial ruin. Who benefitted? USA! Who then controlled the oil trade? The USA! Then what happened? Financial ruin and too many wars! Who now controls trade? Asians! Who is soon rich? The Asians! Then what happens?
  12. Basically im saying, the global market watch is JUST to get a quick overview over your portfolio with nice colours. The global market watch IS already available (i have it) and is just meant as an overview. Ah commodities are all red so bear market, ah bank stocks are starting to turn red on the weekly, whats going on there? Like that, you know. The REAL Socrates is actually forecasting turnpoints in the future, and gives trade signals with its Reversals when they get elected, Reversals, Arrays, Turnpoints and is NOT YET available except to Marty. But this is what he wants to release this year to everyone (with enough cash to spare)
  13. From socrates: " The A$ took out all FOUR Weekly Bearish Reversals as well. The political nonsense going on Downunder certainly does not help. The stronger the dollar gets, the higher the probability that Trump will just escalates the tariff issues. "
  14. HAHAHA i dont know you, so i assume youre joking and find it hilarious haha By the way, here some semi-serious advice: 1. put 2-3 children per room 2. after 4 children clothes can be worn by 2-3 kids before they break. Buy second hand EVERYTHING Do it in a more traditional country, i dont know, Laos or something, where neighbours and family help you with upbringing! Do it where ALL people have at least 3 kids, so your kids have someone to play OUTSIDE of your house (more peaceful for you) Do it where women are more traditional, clean, cook, have mother instincts instead of money and career instincts. Do it in a place where people think its normal for kids to later care for their old parents, so you get their care when youre old and spent all your energy into your kids. Let the kids do housework, gardenwork, babysitting so you have to do less. With more than 1 kid your wife might not be so sexy in the evening, you might wanna tell her from the start that you might eventually need your desires fulfilled even if by someone else than her, or someone else than HIM if your gay. So basically, in australia they give you money, but for a reason. No sane person WANTS children in that kind of culture and society. Best is being single, 30, good job, live in a flat you own in the middle of the city near your work and change girlfriends every 1-2 years. Just borrow children, babysit them or play soccer with them. All the fun, none of the sleepless nights and divorce settlements and children alimony.
  15. yes rates are rising. The FED started it under yellen and now even draghi is thinking about it. The problem is when rates triple then debts get out of hand within 10years and then its game over for pensions and governments. Together thats more than 30% of population!
  16. it doesnt work like that, first of all this global market WATCH, is not predicting, it is describing the situation so far til this day so that you get a quick overview of whats bullish and whats bearish in the world, without looking at charts. also on your portfolio you can see the weekly go bearish on one of your stocks then you can check closer and investigate. second it keeps changing until the month is finished. so only on the last day of the month its fixed, til then it changes!
  17. --- NEWS ---- This year Socrates gets (probably) launched! And this years WEC could be a bit interesting cause of Emerging Market Chaos starting! There is still not really a place where people discuss Armstrongs writing and maby there wont be, cause of SPAM posts and different levels of skills and trading styles. Maby there should be a closed private circle of similar minded people who are really activively engaged on a medium thats really convenient (not a forum) with mods and rules and posts who are to the point and no opinion allowed only facts? So far only the WEC is suited to actually invest on the info. Maby the private blog too. But basically since November 2015 its just long the DJIA if WEC advice is followed! So 10.000 would now be 14.000 with that strategy within 3 years. So the WEC delivered 12% unleveraged gains annually. The private blog gave clear levels to get out and in aldough a bit confusing and one has to really check the position every weekend. The 3rd Socrates level however will give a much broader tool to base discussions on and trade other things.
  18. @AndersB The time to buy again in the USA is after 2030 sometime. But then you will have to buy CASH Maby similar timing applies to Australia? The place to be is stocks til then! In my personal opinion especially tech-software-AI and all the good stuff that makes lots of cash, disintermediation, efficiency, or is at least new and hyped And of course shorting stuff, like bonds, real estate, banks, muni bonds,
  19. Its funny to realize we are all prone to do this, predict rising prices while prices are rising, or hotter climate every year will make us paint scenarios of deserts Thats how manias like bitcoin can happen. I predicted the bitcoin top and went out, because i could feel the mania happen inside myself, all the optimism i suddenly felt was a huge warning sign, we can use that knowledge to our advantage in the next gold and commodity bullmarket
  20. Still my opinion.
  21. Yes cheap is a good start, hated, neglected. But also there needs to be a push for it to rise soon, otherwise it can be 3 years til it moves. Or one buys on obvious nice buy signals. With commdities im unhappy because they are traded in dollars and when the dollar rises, they might get whacked down. After the dollar peaks, circumstances are much better, then you got no more headwind That would be in 2-4 years according to marty In my experience i made tons of money when i followed current bullmarkets and got out again before or after the top. Its much quicker since its already rising. So say, gold goes above 1362, then the low was 3 years ago, so its a current bullmarket since many years.
  22. i thought about it again: say a company has a certain costs and a certain profit margin and say they earn 12% per year then if you have 100$ of stocks you get 12$ per year when inflation rises and rises, their costs rise and they get a bit squeezed and also bonds might then give 8% so their 12% doesnt look as good anymore but since rates keep rising you also dont want bonds! as the bonds of next year bear more interest than yours. real estate should be really bad at the first 5 years since people go bankrubt with rising rates!!! so houses come to market. so there is really only one thing to invest in: tangibles, commodities, prices of things that rise because costs to make them rise! if you own a farm and your costs rise, that sucks. but if you just own wheat itself then its price rises with rising costs to produce it.
  23. Bonds are in bad trouble when rates rise, cause the rates on YOUR bonds doesnt rise, only on NEW issues, so your bond has a low interest per year which then sucks compared to the new higher ones. In my opinion stocks are quite high so i would advise to only TRADE them not to buy and hold them. Im struggling myself to find investment opportunities actually. Commodities are historically cheap now....
  24. yes thats an added benefit that: 1. socrates predicts acommodity rally into roughly 2024 2. socrates predicts cooling, which in europe can be bad for crops
  25. yes that can work if one times it and shorts on the highs. i also thought, commodities could rise when interest rates and inflation rise? but the logic is so convoluted, im not sure.... it seems like no reference to history can be made as its always different circumstances... 1970s-1981 had high inflation worldwide even switzerland 20% per year. House prices did veeeery badly. commodities held up with inflation, so leverage should make it awesome! like 2x ETFs but they rise in spike-moves so gotta time it.