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About Swaize

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  1. Well the data i got was back to 1952, from england real estate In that timeframe longest bearmarkets were 5y long So 1952 - 2018 = 62years of data is not enough in this case to find the really big long downturns that might now come again! Try explain that to someone, they only know the last 30-62 years when houses mostly went up! Or in my case i only remember 2007-2018 with now 2 housing bubbles. So the young ones wont buy and the older ones have already and neither of them can imagine a 16year decline in prices....
  2. Marty today wrote about the great depression that came before the great depression. Very interesting. That one had its low on martys 51.6year ECM turnpoint and the next like that in 1878 is coming 2032 Martys dates are: 1878(low of depression) 1929(start of depression) 1981(huuuge inflation peaks) next date like that is 2032....? Pension crysis, government debt default, monetary crysis, shift to asia, real estate low Back then germany took silver out of the monetary system. Changes to the monetary system seem to come during/before baaaad times! Marty says somewhere 2021-24 will be another monetary crysis. "In 1873, during a decline in the value of silver—exacerbated by the end of the German Empire's production of the thaler coins from which the dollar got its name—the US government passed the Coinage Act of 1873 in April of that year. This essentially ended the bimetallic standard of the United States, forcing it for the first time onto a pure gold standard. This measure, referred to by its opponents as "the Crime of 1873" and the topic of William Jennings Bryan's Cross of Gold speech in 1896, forced a contraction of the money supply in the United States. It also drove down silver prices further, even as new silver mines were being established in Nevada" As i understand this, if silver is no longer money then that reduces the money supply and is deflationary. "rampant fraud in the building of the Union Pacific Railway up to 1869 culminated in the Credit Mobilier panic. Railway overbuilding and weak markets collapsed the bubble in 1873" aaand there was a railway bubble. Also in britain and austria: "The global economic crisis first erupted in Austria-Hungary, where in May 1873 the Vienna Stock Exchange crashed.[11] In Hungary, the panic of 1873 terminated a mania of railroad-building." "Globally, however, the 1873-1896 was a period of falling price levels and rates of economic growth significantly below the periods preceding and following." Thats about as long as japan and happened in england and usa or as they put it, globally Now if historians look back at 2007-2032 they would probably see the same picture! Low growth, deflation, banking crysis, rising unemployment. Certainly after 2007 the world wasnt the same anymore (in europe and usa) After inflation europe actually has no more growth! Since years! 1873-1896 france and italy grew only 1% per year, just lile today! "1877 triggering mass emigration from other countries such as Italy, Spain, Austria-Hungary, and Russia." Jep we got that now from france italy spain portugal to germany switzerland "A ten-year tariff war broke out between France and Italy after 1887" tariffs..... TTTTRRRRRUUUUMP???!!! "three separate recessions, concentrated in manufacturing, occurred in the period (1874–1877, 1881–1886, and 1891–1892), separated by periods of recovery." 1991-96 was again a run to gold and a run on banks. Commodity prices fell which hurt the usa. Ahm 2000-2003 then 2007-2012 aaaand? There was the 1879 famine and wheat and silk production got hit by diseases. Ahm wheat rust fungus appeared this year. "The People's Party, also known as the Populists, from 1892 to 1896, it played a major role as a force in American politics. It was highly critical of capitalism, especially banks and railroads Established in 1891 as a result of the Populist movement, the People's Party reached its zenith in the 1892 presidential election, when its ticket, composed of James B. Weaver and James G. Field, won 8.5% of the vote. The Populists represented hostility to elites, cities, banks, railroads." We have that now! With corbyn, AfD, le pen, 5-star, oprah winfrey The 1896 Broadway melodrama The War of Wealth was inspired by the panic of 1893. "The Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890, while falling short of the Free Silver movement's goals, required the U.S. government to buy millions of ounces of silver above what was required" this bankrubted the USA! lol stupid... "According to high estimates, about 17%–19% of the workforce was unemployed at the panic's peak." Not there yet. President Grover Cleveland, a Democrat, was blamed for the depression. He in turn blamed the Sherman Silver Purchase Act. The decline of the gold reserves stored in the Treasury fell to a dangerously low level. This forced President Cleveland to borrow $65 million in gold from Wall-Street banker J.P. Morgan and the Rothschild banking family of England.[12] i guess this time government will just steal the pensions cause goldman aint gonna bail them out lol
  3. Goodness, 16 years straight down....THATS demoralizing. Thanks for that chart cobran! I can add that in great britain housing data back to 1952 the bearmarkets lasted 5 years and never longer. 1952 was the start of martys real estate cycle, 2007/17 is the end. So obviously cobran you just showed me that i need a longer data series to get a real picture of how nasty downturns can be when the big cycles end! Seems that 5y timeframe doesnt apply to uber-mega-bubbles.
  4. Hey thanks for the tip! I love mountainbiking, will make a mental notoce to get myself a bike by spring. What about strength training using body weight or max 20kg? How is that on the joints?
  5. March turnpoint almost here This turnpoint in gold seems to be a low on the weekly level. On the monthly also. God if gold now rises im so relieved Cause as others made fun of this guy buying the 3million $ house, i bought gold last year intended to play the "long game" until 2024 when marty predicts the commodity cycle or even until 2030-34 when he predicts quote: "the tangible assets rise amid total unsecurity about the medium of exchange" or for us mortals... Inflation like in 1980 P.S. maby interesting to know why. I had rough patches in my life. My parents too. I learned its VITAL to have three things then: Buffer like cash, gold, food Friends that help out, that cheer up, that hug A healthy routine that pulls the body and mind trough, good nutrition and exercise (even a 30minutes jogging)
  6. March turnpoint almost here This turnpoint in gold seems to be a low on the weekly level. On the monthly also. God if gold now rises im so relieved Cause as others made fun of this guy buying the 3million $ house, i bought gold last year intended to play the "long game" until 2024 when marty predicts the commodity cycle or even until 2030-34 when he predicts quote: "the tangible assets rise amid total unsecurity about the medium of exchange" or for us mortals... Inflation like in 1980
  7. Looks more and more that those cycles just arent going to go in a nice direction. More and more evidence of at least a plateau having been reached. Growth slowing while inflation rising can mean negative real returns.
  8. The wives should be happy they dont have to live with their mom like most 20-40 do in the west. Or live in a "luxurious" 16m2 flat in hongkong! Teach them some manners and gratitude and a sense for the world we live in, a sense for how most people live on this planet. I agree if its raining into the house -》 needs fixing. But a house for more than 5years wages?? Come-On! Choose a smaller one, easy
  9. Also you should get the history right, japans housing market especially the crazy expensive cities DID have quite the crash, as did the nikkei!!! The reason why its called the lost (2?) Decades is that prices then never went up again... ever... Couple years ago marty predicted the nikkei to finally rise again which it eventually now did. 1989 was the crash...
  10. Hey! Marty + Me + Socrates predicted the top in bonds and low in rates here on the forum! Nice to see it works Thanks for updating cobran!
  11. @Solomon where do you live? even in poland and the rural outback of hungary this loads in a flash-moment. Get yourself mobile 4G if available. House prices seem to start to decline, just sell your house and move somewhere nice
  12. seems major city real estate in australia DID come down a bit: " Housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne continue to fall in February but the rate of decline in prices has started to ease, Corelogic says. Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/sydney-melbourne-property-price-falls-ease-in-february-20180228-h0wt5q#ixzz58atUrCYv Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook "
  13. Since this topic is about Martys writings, here is one that i think is quite useful on Gold: Gold: " We have an important Daily Bearish Reversal at 1313.20 which is showing up as a Double. We also have a Weekly Bearish at 1316.20 and the Weekly Bullish is now also 1362.40. This is obviously a critical area to watch for gold keeps knocking on our Monthly Bullish at 1362.40 but has been unable to push through it since the low of 2015. We will also have a Quarterly Bullish at the 1346 level for the end of March. If we fail to elect that one as well as the Monthly, then gold has some more work to do on the downside. We have back-to-back Directional Changes starting next week with the main target in mid-March for a turning point. "
  14. I personally think, building with materials like wood, clay, clay tiles, lime wash, stone and bricks is great. Materials made out of living cells and 3D printed structures..... sounds like wood made complicated.
  15. Capital is definitely flowing out of italy france china india so usa and australia new zealand seem plausible places for capital flows usa now is the only country with no FACTA agreement, its like a tax haven now