Swaize

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About Swaize

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  1. I think Europe is f*ckED for a LOOOOOOONG time. And im not talking about spain and greece, those are f*cked SINCE a looong time lol Im talking about the healthy ones like Czech, Poland, Germany, England, Holland these are the ones with low unemployment right now. (basically all the Germanic genetic regions are healthy, oh the coincidence, and the greeks who got overrun by turks and the spanish who got overrun by muslems have sh*tty economies, bad sign now that Austria and Germany are ALSO overrun by africans and middle-easterns......) In 10years when the next crysis is over, then the fixed interest loans will have run out and become changeable interest loans. So thats 2028, add maby 5y housing downturn to that and you arrive 2033 which is martys real estate cycle low! Oh... have i mentioned that maaaany swiss pension funds invested heavily in Real Estate because Bonds were not yielding anything....and swiss private people took their pension savings and put them into RealEstate too....
  2. You can watch those numbers to see when the action starts: Netflix: First of all, let me say, there are still bugs in Socrates: today it shows a ridiculous number for the japanese yen. And on netflix there is also one mistake in numbers, where it says 0,29% up in 4 weeks is a phenomenal rise The globalmarket watch said october important low, for netflix a year-end closing below 19196 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 becomes possible. our technical resistance stands at 32468 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 40337 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 29261. This provides a 27% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 42322 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 23610. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 44%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 31084, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in NetFlix Inc so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during October. Critical support still underlies this market at 23610 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible Want more? NASDAQ Index: our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 927394 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 708482 Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 744200 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 680595. (( another huuuge mistake: Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2482 weeks )) monthly market watch says, preparing for breakout for this month..... Dow: We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2022. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 2471922 which is bullish Our projected resistance stands above the market at 2590679 and a closing above that is necessary to signal any strong further upside advance. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2990642 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2410123. This provides a 19% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 2661672 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2399720. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 9.84%
  3. marty still thinks, this will be a runaway bullmarket, no new lows.
  4. Now in the swiss mountains prices tumble. Switzerland was so far not hit by ANY real estate slowdown since 1980s Prices since 2007 are someplaces up by 50% But since july 2017 prices are FLAT: https://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/kurse-produkte/indizes/detail/?ID_NOTATION=7910625 There were still some regions with price growth up from last year but much less than usual. We are now at the flat-peaking phase. I think its safe to say, that when rates rise in Switzerland, prices will come down. And in a -0,5% interest environment that will have quite crazy effects on downpayment of million dollar houses. Maby fun stat: average rent for 100m2 is 2165Chf so 3000 AUD per 100m2 rent Average price for an appartment in Z├╝rich was 1million Chf last year. So about 1.5million AUD for an average appartment. The average houshold, so one woman one man working, has to work for 10 years to get enough money for a credit, so age 25 out of uni, at 35 get credit, after 10 year fixed interest die on the then high interest rates at age 45 That explains why the average age for a baby is so high, when people can only afford a house at age 35 but both have to work to pay down the loan. And 42h per week is normal and 1h to go to work is normal, so not much time left to actually see the child.
  5. Yeah well after 30 awesome years, a big crysis and then maby another 30 so so years. Thats just the normal pattern, in Germany they had now the 30 so so years and economists on youtube argue over why the years were only soso and how they could return to the good years again, what system they need, while allthewhile being totally blind that now the quite bad 30 years come! So just step out of the way of the rolling big snowballs of doom and you will be fine again after the crysis. Commodities will rally, you have low public debts so after the banks swollow the bad pill or the government bails them out, it will be quite okay again Remember, as long as you got a job that just pays every month, then you dont care how unemployment rises or sales slump. Just stay in there. Then when government suffocates on the now high debt like europe, then you gotta start getting out of there.
  6. The dollars turnpoint against the euro its definitely 2021 2023/24 will be commodities REALLY moving, a genuine commodity bullmarket, irrespective or currencies. droughts will make food go up, there will be inflation, all the good stuff (says marty) probably accompanied by a weaker dollar, as this is after martys expected dollar super-high
  7. thats also when marty expects a big high in us dollar. so buckle up, for some crazy times, also as china unwinds which was a big boost for australia that could now fall away.
  8. So you have a polish girlfriend who is awesome in martial arts and you fight together trough the world Pretty cool If you want, you can make it so that, If you have residency in a place without capital gains tax, then you can cut the investment tax.
  9. I just realized i made a mistake, by believing local statistics. Of course the pound dropped IMMENSLY!!! From 2014 at 0,60 to USD to 0,80 to USD today So maby the REAL high wasnt early 2017 but actually earlier. So during a short term, maby 2 year timeframe, a falling currency can kill all profits in real estate in real terms. @cobran20 i just checked the old yearly arrays on commodities again and around the years 2023/24 all commodities have big turnpoints, oil, corn, copper, gold you name it The next coming up for gold is 2020 (ny spot gold) The next for silver is 2021
  10. i checked the governments statistic and can NOT find ANY nationwide decline of any significance. That is regarding price. But new builds slowed by 2% And really BAD is the SALES fell by 9% over last year So first less gets sold, then less gets built, then prices come down it seems. The last step is still missing from data. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-may-2018 " Despite the falls in London, property prices in the capital are only 3% below the record highs achieved in early 2017, and are still 50% higher than they were in 2007 before the financial crisis. " By the way early 2017 is about 1 year later than Martin Armstrong predicted the peak in the "luxury real estate market" Interest rates in Europe peaked about mid 2016 which is about 8 months later than Martin Armstrong predicted. All in all pretty good job i think. So if he was right on that, then be worried about his prediction of doubling, tripling interest rates within a few years.
  11. Yes on some charts house prices are declining since 12months already, usually the worst of the decline is finished after 2-5years historically. But trying to sell while its going down is harder. That means by about 2022 a couple Australian banks should have gone bust, choked by non-permorming real estate loans. And credits to cobran, this will help: " of the $706 billion worth of new home loans approved in 2014-15, a worrying 42 per cent of them were for interest-only repayment arrangements. And more than 900,000 of them will begin expiring from January, reverting to principal and interest payments. Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, said it would add an average of $400 extra per month to repayments. "
  12. We can argue about which bank will drop dead first Tor, why do you pay taxes in 3 countries? I thought you pay were you are resident. Or do you have houses in all kind of places?
  13. so its really happening.... time to short banks!
  14. Dollar weakness after 2021 combined with inflation and just plain cycles, agriculture has been low for many years And like medved says, marty expects the chaos/cold winter-spring to be bad for crops and push prices higher Also interest rates will go up, so a special kind of inflation rises
  15. Marty still sees the dow going to 38k within reasonable amount of time and before any big crash. i paraphrase: 2019 2020 dow off to the races