Swaize

Advanced members
  • Content count

    236
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

9 Neutral

About Swaize

  • Rank
    Consummate

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male

Recent Profile Visitors

1251 profile views
  1. Just rewatched the video from the conference, he said the Aussi Dollar has a rock solid support underneath, so the lows are in.
  2. Yes for France 2024 is the political change cycle with a new kind of Government, a real change: France specific peak of political change 2024, revolution, change in government we are looking at the collapse of the Fifth Republic formed by Charles de Gaulle. France is clearly on the brink of another political revolution. The Fifth Republic, France’s current republican system of government, was established by Charles de Gaulle under the Constitution of the Fifth Republic on October 4th, 1958 (1958.758). Here too, there appears to be the risk of forming a new government (fall of the 5th Republic) by mid 2021. (next french election) What are your thoughts about that? Well, he did publish that model portfolio about the dow and Socrates does give specific trade signals. They are called Reversals. You can buy/sell every weekly or monthly bullish/bearish and use those as trade signals. His monthly model im sure you remember from the blog, it basically just went in, rode the dow up til a bit after the 2000 top, got out, went in, road a bit after the 2007 top, got out, real simple and low maintanance. The picture showed on the graph when socrates traded. The weekly is more maintenance than that, checking for elected Reversals every Saturday. My strategy was adding the cycle arrays to it, only acting on Reversals when it looks like a new trend is beginning. I guess to make it perfect, Marty would have to run a model portfolio live, like i do on the blog and publish all trades when they are executed and run that for a couple years, with a couple different instruments. Basically what i did on the blog, just officially by him and specifically saying how and when and upon what signals one should trade. Right?
  3. Hey guys @cobran20 you said i should make a portfolio and report about it, well i did, 3 years ago, i set out to beat all hedgefunds managers in the world and at least make it into the top10 every year and this year as every year im beating the hell out of those idiots I usually say what im gonna do in advance and then do it. I start every year with 100k and measure at the end of the year what my performance was. I write down every trade on the day im doing it and often already in advance. So here is my lonely, narcissistic blog of trashing hedgefunds and giving myself a high five: http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/ with archive 2015 jan,feb you can get to the first posts, oh its only 2 years from 2015.... well im bragging a lot in the blog too haha ah no wait, 2015 2016 2017 yes the third year already: http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/archives/01-2015 As for Marty, he doesnt give out many/any real forecasts from socrates on the blog. Also Socrates is super longterm. I can give you ones from the WEC2015 that are still years out and ones from this year in HongKong about events 4 years from now. The tradeble ones about the markets are usually just reversals and turnpoints. Turnpoints can be highs OR lows thats where Marty often f*cks it up in reports Thats where Reversals come in and he says, IF we elect that reversal THEN that turnpoint will be a high. As for BREXIT i gathered all his blog posts somewhere either here or in the WEC forum to show that the computer DID predict Brexit. That was possible cause he had a model for it. With the French election he also had one, predicting Le Pen (the third party) will beat all the old standard parties. But Macron came in and beat her, so socrates forecast was correct but useless cause le pen won against the standard parties as forecasted but Macron won the presidency This reminds me of the oracle of Delphi, (Marty comes from near Philadelphia) the Greek oracle said to a king (Krösus? who asked if he should attack tomorrow) that an empire will die in the battle. So the King went and attacked, but lost the battle and his own empire died, gotta be more specific For the DOW the arrays on the yearly look really bad,wobbly,weird,useless so he still isnt able to forecast the final high thereyet. He DID call the 2015 high, spectacularly called the september2016 low on the ECM date, the breakout 2016/2017 like clockwork so far, just the final high he isnt able to forecast correctly in reports, maby its just really far off still? The newest is: if late 2018 is a low on the quarterly basis, then the high can be off into 2022 basically the phase transition comes when the DOW surpasses 23.000 and 2018 and 2022 are turnpoints. His final gold low calls are equally wobbly. He himself got it wrong, but socrates gave december2015 or april2016 as the forecast for low (i posted that here in advance, the benchmarks) Marty then got the high mid2016 a bit off, like by a month or so. At the latest WEC he said he still doesnt see gold taking off yet and there MIGHT still be new lows, otherwise we should buy upon a monthly close above his 1363? or so number from the blog. When we look at silver its almost back to the lows, id say socrates is doing ok for now, not perfect but okay. On the blog you can see me short precious metal from the mid 2016 high and making a profit. In Summary, he gives himself too many high fives and words like "perfect" definitely stem from martys ego not socrates performance. The title "forecaster" also implies a bit too much. Its not like he permanently forecasts the whole future in detail, more like a hazy picture, with a few puzzle pieces, which sometimes gets pushed a few years further into the future. When he ran the Australian Hedgefund he had a team watching markets 24h 24/7 which he didnt have to do if he knew the future. His claimed performance is 100% gains a year. Pretty damn good for a mortal human of course! Not god-like or magic. But if you have a look at my blog, youll see what Socrates is up against, most hedgefunds are really LOUSY! http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/update On the last note, i will give you the year where marty sees the dollar high, currency chaos, which will then trigger all the Chaos he talks about so often. 2020-2022 should be that time when the dollar peaks and after that 2023 should be the mystical worldwide monetary reform! Also lately on the blog he made public the date which he thinks the EU will have its economic low, 2021, which is also the next yearly turnpoint for the Dollar against the Euro! Swaize
  4. Hey guys Heard from friends the 2016WEC was a dud, glad i didnt go, but i decided to give it another try this year The predictions of the last two are basically: Buy the dow until 2018 or 2023 Stay away from bonds Gold in USD still hasnt bottomed but 2017 should be lowest yearly close Real Estate has peaked and will only be a good buy in 15 years mainly because of taxation The dollar will rise to 1985 high (euro 0.82 pound to par) by 2018 or the latest by 2021 Someone wrote socrates cant be measured. It can. Just buy the first weekly bullish and sell only once you get a weekly bearish. Or get into a market buying when it generates a monthly bullish after a correction and sell when it generates the first monthly bearish. Its a trend following system so test it on charts that have some kind of trend and not sideways or erratic markets. If you got Arrays find a nice quarterly turnpoint, zoomin to monthly and if it also shows a clear turnpoint then start your test right after that turnpoint is past and the trend changes. From my experience socrates works. Especially for longterm investors (couple of months-years) and especially in markets that have a trend, meaning that really move. Theres a third thing to do, to make it shine! Only trade markets with a gap between reversals on the monthly and quarterly level! But psst dont tell everyone, i think not many understand those 3 steps yet. I call it filtering and learned it from a guy who attends martys conferences since 1985! Buffet is also great and i think you can use Socrates as an entry/exit strategy on Stocks Buffet picks. Id use the monthly reversals for that then youd have to check your investment only 12 times per year (after every monthly closing) and not even pick stocks yourself
  5. @Solomon this "Dow Report" doesnt exist but check this out: " The reflection point that will tip the scales to extremely bullish will turn on confidence. What MUST BE UNDERSTOOD here is we have two possible patterns: (1) We leave 2016 as the intraday high temporarily and back off, moving to retest support into 2018, and then rally in a major breakout into 2020, or (2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn. " He clearly states that the Dow will go up into 2018 and 23k is a target and he still expects his phase transition and recently wrote above 23k the general public will buy in a frenzy. Cobran i think this is a prediciton "(2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn"
  6. Marty still calls for a new low in gold in USD Marty apparently said at the conference (2nd hand knowledge hearsay) that the aussi and canadian will be strong currencies now (not much more to fall anyway hey?) and that the dollar will still be stronger than both. 2nd hand knowledge from i think martys CEO ashley is that for example the yen will be weak, chinese will be weak has elected a yearly bearish this year DAX and DOW are super strong so the flight into stocks seems to be happening, hold onto your seats! Oh and.... bitcoin has broken out 1200$ now
  7. cool chart cobran! its clear gold is bullish in most currencies and the only reason marty thinks the low is still coming is that he expects a sizable dollar-upmove....
  8. @tor ah so you mean more like the direction its going into with banning refugees and starting more wars and getting the borders back up and being all closed and conservative is whats happening and if that would fail it could be a chance to be more constructive and bring forth smarter solutions? As for European politics i also kind of wish that they finally fail, cause this isnt leading anywhere, But then.... has it ever? When i talk to a French about politics, they constantly argue if this president is worse than the last or the one before haha In Germany real wages have declined since 1980 but has Merkel in her 8 years done anything to help? Nope, now her minimum wage is 8€ when even 7 years ago commonly 10€ were paid. Its the same with Trump, i noticed how even i got pulled along with the mass suddenly thinking oh yeah he is different, this will change things. My grandmother still follows the lections so even at that age people dont get that... theres always problems in a country and rarely are they easy to solve. What i wish for myself is that i start to solve my own problems on my own and with other citizens and friends and family. Getting off my ass and say f*ck that and just solve it on a small scale, person by person and help others to also make good things happen in their lives. Quote:" All the World's Problems Can Be Solved in a Garden ..." Therefore i will start a garden myself this Spring yehey
  9. Thor, we have never met, so i could be wrong, i sense a kind of like you seem to be waiting for people or society to tear itself apart, partly you see it coming partly you hope it comes because you might feel estranged by the weird people and their behaviour? Im really just wildly guessing here. Did any part of that come close to reality? As for Martys trading/investing/Socrates Guys, Marty got lots of things really right. Thing is.... on just as many occasions he was inaccurate. Gold low earliest by Dez2015. Then one month before goes oh no it will be april. Then one month later goes oh Dezember was a low now it will go up A LITTLE. Then april was nothing, gold keeps shooting up massively past his resistance, he says short at 1340$ (not too bad) then goes a low in January2017 but looks more like a high now, now says oh the low is 2018 the latest. So 2015-2018 quite a range... With the dow he just recently warned of a correction, now posts: see i told ya it will go up (yes marty you did, since 2013, but just before you said beware a correction...) The way it works is he gives a lower number and a higher one. If it exceeds the higher, then the assumption is it will go even higher. From a scientific point of view his arrays DO FAIL often. Im saying you take 20 arrays and see if something happens at the turnpoints and more than 50% it will be off or nothing happens, but worse they change sometimes and often the ones from the blog are different from what we get, basically confusing and untradable sometimes. The trick seems to be to filter out the "real" turnpoints and combine with the reversal levels. Lets say the dow mostly goes up for 7 months. I wont see that on the arrays in advance. Only very rarely important reversals and inmportant arrays come together and THEN we get a decent trade. Like he always says, trade less often and invest longer term, follow the trend. Goldman and Procter and Gamble both had a really really nice October turnpoint on the array. Goldman just shot trough it and Procter made a high there and has been down since. I could call it a great success or... 50/50 chance, just roll a dice. Need to combine with reversals. After the last conference most were confused. After this conference many said things feel clearer now. The newbees struggle dough. Socrateses commentary is usually wrong and much too long to read and understand. So got to really learn the reversals and arrays. Not so easy. I have followed a seasoned Goldbug and Marty fan and his trades based on Socrates. It was a disaster because of the human component! He took some signals and ignored others, that socrates gave, since there are so many, daily, weekly, monthly and multiples of each. Finally the solution could be: Marty said he wants to introduce a hedging model that gives clear automatic buy sell signals. And an alert that notifies us if a signal has been given. That could work great! Just put hedging on the weekly level for trading or monthly for saving for retirement and voila. I am looking forward to test that. One last thing. On the quarterly level array, markets first showed 2nd quarter 2017 then it shifted to 3rd quarter 2017 and some even shifted again, over the course of 2016. So arrays DO shift and change. Support and marty says otherwise, but i have seen it and i have proof. Even from his blog on the dow there were 4 arrays once and all different and none really correct. So dont get fooled, they dont always work perfectly as i at least would have wished.
  10. There was early snow in November, there was/is snow in Greece and even on the Balearic islands like Mallorca which is unusual. The weather channel in germany warned of this and said its an unusual pehnomenon of some weird air inflow from the north. All places have way more snow than in the last 10 years. 1960-1980 still beats that dough according to older people. The Swiss Government made their own climate study and found that there was basically stable climate, a little dip around 1960-1975 and then strong warming from 1980-2010 So they didnt find any hockey stick or any warming from cars or co2 or anything. Glaciers also showed the warming from 1980-2010 by shrinking. Im glad for this warming, my mother remembers huge lakes being frozen that i have never seen frozen ever. Other research around the world has showed that there was no gigantic simultaneous cooling in the tropics and subtropics. The last mini-ice-age was mostly in Europe. Other parts of the world did also cool but simultaneously to Europe. What did happen was that rain patterns got really screwed up. One year no rain, next year too much, late frosts, early frosts, stuff like this. Farmers were reporting that they are confused when to sow because the seasons became so irregular. Lots of crop losses either way..... cooling in Europe is a ba sign for the world. Luckily it has only plateau-ed so far and not dropped too far. @Mr Medved thats why i asked if anyone needs any info back then because i knew our Beta-Trial will come to an end sometime. Now it has. Those numbers and turnpoint are of course still valid. What i heard from the new conference as far as currencies go, the Euro hasnt elected the worst reversal, only the Chinese Yuan has. So the dollar upmove will come but not right now (next couple of months) @cobran20 Gold Hmm the low or the change into an uptrend is still to come according to Marty (in USA $ terms) Used to be January for a low so here we are. Its a low. If i was looking to buy this is a relatively good time. Inflation is piicking up all over the world, Germany, USA, Britain. In all currencies we are off the lows, just in US-Dollar Marty expects lower lows. Now he mentioned it can still break below 1000$ maby even next year who knows, he doesnt. Lots depends on the US-Dollar so relying on Marty when youre in Aussi Dollar doesnt make much sense, cause he expects a big rise in the Dollar til semewhere in 2018-2021 which will distort his forecast and make it useless measured in Aussi Dollar. He did say that the latest Gold can bottom is 2017-2018
  11. There was one recent blog post from marty with a monthly array on stocks, saying it shows how people will get trapped and then alittle correction first before it goes up further. Marty stopped his crash forecasts and now started to give numbers on advances and resistance.
  12. Dear Traders, Invest in Europe, we always got plenty of bankrubt banks to short Next year we will add nation states to our product range If youre not satisfied you can always get your money back.... in Drachma
  13. I just wanna say this: The Dollar Rallye has started, its time to act, i changed my money to USD (and Bitcoins) The Euro is at its yearly number and if it closes below.... On the conference some crazy high forecast-numbers for the USD got thrown around especially against Yen.
  14. his last prediction was a low on the benchmarks one of which was december 2015 now dough, because of the dollar rallye he sees new lows for 2017 and one other, he said, silver and gold wont have their bottom at the same time. that means one can bottom earlier, i speculate maby gold earlier. we can read now everywhere newspapers writing of inflation returning, marty also sees it that way. slowly inflation is returning. first asset inflation then cost (tax) inflation the dollar will rise substantially into 2018 amongst this chaos. make no mistake, 2015 and 2016 nothing much happened, things jugged along. but 2017 is the launching pad into chaos. especially for europe, not very much for australia, after europe follows japan....the yen will tank as youve never seen it tanking in their multidecade deflation. the next WEC is in asia
  15. ah okay you mean that its not november as that guy said, okay. well now you got martys prediction for checking if its correct too gold low in 2017 jan turnpoint