Swaize

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About Swaize

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  1. Its funny to realize we are all prone to do this, predict rising prices while prices are rising, or hotter climate every year will make us paint scenarios of deserts Thats how manias like bitcoin can happen. I predicted the bitcoin top and went out, because i could feel the mania happen inside myself, all the optimism i suddenly felt was a huge warning sign, we can use that knowledge to our advantage in the next gold and commodity bullmarket
  2. Still my opinion.
  3. Yes cheap is a good start, hated, neglected. But also there needs to be a push for it to rise soon, otherwise it can be 3 years til it moves. Or one buys on obvious nice buy signals. With commdities im unhappy because they are traded in dollars and when the dollar rises, they might get whacked down. After the dollar peaks, circumstances are much better, then you got no more headwind That would be in 2-4 years according to marty In my experience i made tons of money when i followed current bullmarkets and got out again before or after the top. Its much quicker since its already rising. So say, gold goes above 1362, then the low was 3 years ago, so its a current bullmarket since many years.
  4. i thought about it again: say a company has a certain costs and a certain profit margin and say they earn 12% per year then if you have 100$ of stocks you get 12$ per year when inflation rises and rises, their costs rise and they get a bit squeezed and also bonds might then give 8% so their 12% doesnt look as good anymore but since rates keep rising you also dont want bonds! as the bonds of next year bear more interest than yours. real estate should be really bad at the first 5 years since people go bankrubt with rising rates!!! so houses come to market. so there is really only one thing to invest in: tangibles, commodities, prices of things that rise because costs to make them rise! if you own a farm and your costs rise, that sucks. but if you just own wheat itself then its price rises with rising costs to produce it.
  5. Bonds are in bad trouble when rates rise, cause the rates on YOUR bonds doesnt rise, only on NEW issues, so your bond has a low interest per year which then sucks compared to the new higher ones. In my opinion stocks are quite high so i would advise to only TRADE them not to buy and hold them. Im struggling myself to find investment opportunities actually. Commodities are historically cheap now....
  6. yes thats an added benefit that: 1. socrates predicts acommodity rally into roughly 2024 2. socrates predicts cooling, which in europe can be bad for crops
  7. yes that can work if one times it and shorts on the highs. i also thought, commodities could rise when interest rates and inflation rise? but the logic is so convoluted, im not sure.... it seems like no reference to history can be made as its always different circumstances... 1970s-1981 had high inflation worldwide even switzerland 20% per year. House prices did veeeery badly. commodities held up with inflation, so leverage should make it awesome! like 2x ETFs but they rise in spike-moves so gotta time it.
  8. looking forward to hearing from Cambodia Tor medved, bishkek and almaty? i never thought about these places, but now i will actually once had a girlfriend from bishkek, she was a real witch (not in caracter but an actual witch) cobran, laos and borneo, interesting Now i have lots of ideas for winter thats great! Thanks guys Right now im in Poznan, love it here, suprisingly nice weather, beautiful women.
  9. im still trying to figure out how to profit from the rising rates and cant come up with much. Ideas? can be longterm
  10. WHAT you can actually walk away from a house by just leaving and the bank has to take it back and you dont owe anything anymore?? even if the house value is lower than what is owed (due to prices that fell)
  11. yeah brazil had bad years cause of low soja price venezuela cause of low oil price now argentina is toasting but the low for that region should be 2018-2021 and it should be bought, as 2024 is a commodity HIGH! and south america has lots of growing potential anyway. As for banks, get usd cash 50$ notes get gold physical get local currency cash Maby some water, some food(dont overdo it and store food you actually eat anyway and keep eating and renewing) IF there is a pandemic in 2019-2020 like marty thinks, stay healthy
  12. how is asia and what places were nice? reccomendations? in south america, many friends liked colombia and costa rica (i have never been) in europe stunning women in oslo, nice party vibe in holland, nice old town vienna(touristic) nice food in france also castles , very cheap places in the balkan-romania area also lots of wilderness (need a car and maby visa) budapest cheap and nice old-f*cked up-charm rustic if you like drinking and pubs, then scotland and ireland
  13. maby theres one local to Perth? according to this: https://reiwa.com.au/the-wa-market/perth-metro/ perth real estate peaked longtime ago and isnt in a bubble therefore the banks should be safe
  14. Yeah thats gone, but there are other gems right now waiting to be travelled in your area of the world, you got all of asia
  15. with the coming banking crysis i expect people around the world going crazy for physical gold coins! imagine the mess, especially in europe when governments go bust AND banks go bust, no one can save no one, so people will go to cash and gold and land and food storage and dollars! you cant imagine HOW bankrubt for example italian banks are! thats double the population of australia trying to get into real assets like gold! this will be historical