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About spark

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  1. Just a few interesting samples, of yearly median house prices in selected suburbs, from, based on myrpdata: Rose Bay 2003: $1,840,000 ; 2012: $1,620,000 Vaucluse 2003: $2,590,000 ; 2012: $2,700,000 Point Piper 2003: $5,575,000 ; 2012: $4,250,000 Tamarama 2003: $2,150,000 ; 2012: $1,760,000 Double Bay 2003: $1,925,000 ; 2012: $2,000,000 Mosman 2003: $1,755,000 ; 2012: $2,050,000 Clontarf 2003: $1,950,000 ; 2012: $1,700,000 Seaforth 2003: $1,205,000 ; 2012: $1,355,000 Northbridge 2003: $1,422,500 ; 2012: $1,660,000 Forestville 2003: $713,500; 2012: $880,000 Doubles every year!
  2. Even 3% will look fantastic. And another Q on this subject: What will the AUD do if there is a sudden spike in oil prices, let's say in the coming weeks?
  3. With all due respect, it will hurt the THB big time....
  4. Where is the "Like" button?
  5. Let's see if "they" can fight demography with keynesianism
  6. Or shares go higher...
  7. Well, here the banks bring upon themselves what they really deserve: A property crash. Nice.
  8. Not at all... Please believe me. :--) Even better - go to CN, see for yourself. Return tickets from SYD to Guangzhou or Shanghai are around $700-$800. Worth it.
  9. Sorry to disappoint you. China is a free country. Just not in the Western sense of "free".
  10. I visit China several times a year. Have local friends there and business connections. (I am not of Chinese origin). I would NOT call it a totalitarian regime. If at all - the government/political system is a hostage of the well being of the people, rather than the people are hostage of the system. I see it as a slient understanding when the citizens are ready (and knowingly willing!!) to live without certain Western perks such as Facebook when in return they have a more effective and efficient political system. A system which has proved its efficiency every year in the last two decades of constantly improving life to all. And nobody can argue with these facts. As long as the everyday life of most citizens in China is improving (and it is!), they would have no problems with a political system which is effective, allows by the way lots of personal freedom to every citizen (look at the growing number of middle class in CN, Chinese tourists around the globe, not to mention the millionaires), even when it is not democratic. They knowingly perfer order and a proven path of progress to some vague forms of freedom like chosing between Gillard and what's-his-name on the other side? The problems of the system will begin when this silent understanding and agreement stops. When life stops from improving. Even when the constant trend upwards becomes a plateau. Then the disgruntled may demand a political change when in fact they would rather see an economical improvement. It's the economy. Only. This is why, to survive, and to keep things going, the Chinese government has the well being of its people as a first and foremost goal. And would never dare to aim tanks at those whom it fears the most. PS - I highly recommend you to visit this amazing country if only as tourists. Nobody came back from China with their prejudice intact.
  11. Soldiers may have investment properties too... I do not believe that China will turn tanks against its own population. 2012 is not 1989.
  12. http://www.marketwat...woes-2012-01-05 As much as I deeply respect the Chinese Government and their dedication to keep their citizens happy (No cynicism! They have to!), this will be a difficult issue to manage.
  13. ASX will see 2xxx I would add Dow to see the ~6000 towards years' end Gold over $2500 USD I would bet on around $800-$1000, mainly since everything (every potential disaster) is already "priced in" AUD breaches 75c. My bet is still 1.2 for the USD and 1=1 for EUR. Coin toss on Iran invasion as China declares alliance. Short but nasty war in the Middle East between Israel and an Iran around May-June 2012. Syria may side with Iran if Mr Assad is still around. Unless there is a severe escalation (too many civilian casualties on the Israeli side and/or New Egypt siding with Iran for whatever reason by whoever takes the power there) there will NOT be direct American intervention. Pragmatic China will keep out of it. Australian property will continue its journey to the long time equilibrium of bringing about 6% yield, mainly due to falling prices, not to slightly rising rents. Say a fall around -10% during 2012, or about -1% per month. Happy New Year!!
  14. And unemployment in CN?... This will not be tolerated by the government. Chinese friends have told me that there is a silent understanding between "the people" and "the people's govt" that as long as life is improving and everyone is (surprisingly) happily employed there won't be any civil unrest. And the minor inconveniences such as blocking of Facebook will be tolerated. With razor thin margins and an already shrinking market for goods at current prices the revaluation of the CNY, say up to the level of 4 to the USD, will put many out of business and out of work. If there is anything I trust in politics of today - it is the wisdom of the Chinese government. I do not see how on earth they would allow for mass unemployment (and unrest) by revaluating the Yuan. If at all they may react to the current situation of shrinking western demand by devaluing the CNY down to 8 even 10 to the USD, just to keep the system running. If at all the "full convertability" of the CNY might be intended to achieve this purpose, not revaluation. How it will be done on the free market I do not know, but I trust the CN govt that they have their own pre-planned solution to this.