staringclown

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Everything posted by staringclown

  1. I agree mr m. Conscription hasn’t worked here forever. Plus nuclear capability would cost 4% of GDP. Double the current spend. I thought you chaps were all about small government? The cost of nukes would put the cost of renewables in the shade. The one, conclusive reason why Australia won't go nuclear
  2. I'll concede that there is a certain amount of hubris creeping into my arguments. It's been a long time that I've been arguing about global warming online. GHPC was 2007? I reckon the hubris has arisen from frustration that this country can't arrive at a consistent policy. That combined with a few vodkas when I post. I don't want to come across like I think cobran is beneath me though. Apologies to cobran if that's how I come across. I don't doubt the he feels as strongly about his views as I do mine. I realised a while back that I won't convince cobran. The best I can hope for is that other undecided readers might find my logic more convincing. Perhaps a forlorn hope in the post truth world. There is a certain disadvantage in arguing based on science. I can't claim absolute certainty as there is always a level of uncertainty in science. I always figured that once we had reached the age of enlightenment that we wouldn't go backwards. Society would be progressed based on evidence rather than ideology. Not turning out like I thought at the moment. I'm a Neal Stephenson fan. Sure I've played a lot of D&D and my balls didn't drop until I was 25 but most of my reading is non-fiction. I'll have to check out Stross and Rajaniemi.
  3. Not long - next election at best
  4. NASA provide confidence intervals for their measurements. The 95% confidence interval for GISS data is 0.05 degrees Celsius. That is an accurate a measure as you will get. I also proposed using the ratio of warm temperature records broken to cool temperatures broken. Same weather stations using the raw data. Here's an indication on the accuracy of news articles on climate change I did enjoy the criticism CRU, NOAA and GISS all use the same source of data. Weather stations? WRT Armstrong's grain index, you're going to have to explain to me how a grains index can be used as a surrogate measure for global temperature? Why use a surrogate measure for something which is clearly measurable in its own right?
  5. You misunderstand me. What I said was that once you account for warming from natural sources the rest is man made. E.g. Sunspots are cyclical over 11 years. The influence sun spots have doesn't explain long term warming trend. My predictions have nothing to do with the amount of money spent. Although I do have another prediction. The next Labor government will adopt the NEG policy dumped by the libs. And all they will need to argue is that this was Liberal policy. I'm happy to pin the predictions anywhere you desire. But not tonight after beerage.
  6. It wasn't as exclusively gay as the Beat but certainly gay friendly. I had a friend that ran the clubs at the Treasury, Mass and the Wickham among others. I visit bris at least once a year but most of my friends moved to Melbourne ages ago so I don't get to check the old haunts unfortunately. We lived in East Brisbane 100 yards from the Wellington hotel. Great spot. It's all high rise now. West End was starting to change just after Expo. Three monkeys cafe was a fave and King Ahirams did the best kebabs. I'm tearing up at the thought. My sister lived in a really solid art deco 6 unit block on Oxlade drive. I'd love one of those.
  7. Very good of you to sacrifice for family. The Valley isn't half as seedy as it was in the Joh days. I used to drink at the Wickham and Ricks cafe circa 1991-4. Gentrification is complete. I understand that the unit market in Brisvegas is oversubscribed so it's possibly a wise choice. Watch out for build quality and strata fees though. Both are a problem in Canberra. Also the growing issue of air&b party units. The Valley is still an attractive tourist destination. Inner city life can be fantastic or awful. Choose well.
  8. On the contrary, my predictions do not stipulate whether the attribution is anthropogenic or not. You are prevaricating. There are multiple forcings and I have never claimed otherwise. As for natural variation, if sun spots are responsible for warming then the 11 year solar maxim cycle should be reflected by a global cyclic temperature cycle. The system should remain steady state over the 11 year cycle if sun spots are solely responsible for the warming. If it's volcanic eruptions (that should cause a cooling effect) then significant eruptions will force global temps down for the period that the particulates from the eruption remain in the atmosphere. Once the particulates have dispersed temperatures should rise again. The system should remain in steady state post eruption. If x other factor is responsible then whenever that effect has subsided then the temperatures should return to a steady state. Once you have eliminated _every_ other source of natural variation and the trend is still upward then you need to consider that in the absence of any other logical reason for the rise that CO2 and anthropogenic forcings are the only thing left to explain the rises. Occams razor withstanding.
  9. How about the NASA site. They measure all three here. The ratio of hot temperature records broken compared to cold temperature records broken is difficult to find for the entire globe. There are US measures here. I'll try and track down a source for the globe.
  10. The days of wine and roses haven't ended quite yet. But soon I think. Are you upgrading zaph?
  11. Happy to oblige in the prediction stakes. Firstly - The number of temperature records broken globally will be greater on the up side than down. To clarify, in a steady state climate one could expect that record cold temperatures would be roughly equal to record high temperatures broken. My prediction is that there will be more record high temperatures broken than cold. Let me know if this prediction requires further clarification. As a bonus prediction overall global temperatures will increase. We may need to agree on a standard measure for this metric. But once agreed it will be locked in. No prevarication will be permitted on either side. Second prediction is that global CO2 levels will rise over the next five years Third is that sea level rises will continue on at least the same trajectory as they are currently tracking.
  12. Who do you imagine my "gurus" are?
  13. I read every article you post cobran - your lack of understanding amuses me. Does it matter if they are sinking or not if they are becoming uninhabitable due to sea level rises? The fact is that _some_ islands aren't "sinking" due to the coral that formed them being thrown up by the sea level rises that are swamping them. Whoopee! We're f*cked but were not f*cked for the reason stated. Rather another reason uncovered by - you guessed it - scientists. Other islands have gone completely.
  14. Are you serious? Don't just read the headline, read the article. From your link...
  15. I'm not convinced that preferred PM is an indicator of electoral success. Turnbull was so close to losing last election even though he was way ahead as preferred PM. A popular PM is a nice to have. Policy should be more important.
  16. I think the libs will probably hold Wentworth. It's more than they deserve.
  17. Of course I know who he is, I just don't understand why you focus so much energy on him. Again, he's not a climate scientist. I also tend not to go to my mechanic to diagnose my health problems. I go to my doctor. How do you know what methodology the non de plume uses for his forecasts? How about comparing the new improved "Inigo Jones" against the olds success. Do you have a chart?
  18. I have no clue as to what your post alludes to except that you you seem to keep repeating some obsession with Tim Flannery. Tim Flannery is not someone whom I have have cited as a source. Neither would I. He is not a climate scientist. The sources that I do generally cite are CSIRO, NASA, BOM etc. They are climate scientists. They study the field and don't pose certainty but RISK. The "predictions" that they make are that SE Australia will suffer longer and more frequent droughts as Global warming remains unabated. Bushfires will become more frequent as temperatures rise. This is actually happening. So they are correct so far... Inigo Jones died in 1954. Unless he is risen from the grave (in which case I would be following his Bookface page with you) it is being run by _somebody_ else whose agenda is uncertain. http://www.seaci.org/publications/documents/SEACI-1 Reports/Phase1_SynthesisReport.pdf The report above addresses your point around evaporation in the tropics due to higher temps and how this affects drought at lower latitudes.
  19. Sorry, couldn't resist.
  20. There's now three months between declared bush fire seasons. They start earlier and finish later. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-15/bushfire-out-of-control-fire-near-ulladulla/10122034 That's a bush fire in winter. But It's great that you can still take the family skiing. BTW a wet WA is a signal that El Nino pattern is upon us. Sth America will also flood and the drought will continue. No farmer on the East coast of Oz is as sanguine as you are. I think you'll find they are worried. https://theconversation.com/spring-is-coming-and-theres-little-drought-relief-in-sight-102393
  21. Are you talking Melb or Bris? I used to catch the train everyday from Yarraville to Spencer St and it was OK. 1/2 hour all up with a change at Footscray. Admittedly,that was 15 years ago. I caught the train from Sunshine to Flinders St last W/E and it took 1/2 hour (on a Friday night) and managed to get to town without being accosted by a single African. Airport to Altandi is a bit slow but you have all of those lovely buses that take me virtually door to door on Mains Rd.
  22. Cant read the article as I don't have a sub for the Oz. I thought the drought was in NSW and Queensland? Is it over then?
  23. First of all the government claim of gigabits per second is rubbish. There is little or no contention on those lines. However the coalition plan will limit your speed to pretty much what you have now. So the question is do we need an NBN? Points for: It can be extended to produce greater speeds with changes in the devices at each end of the pipe. It's fibre optic to the home dude think about the movie/gaming (and on a serious note real time conferencing and work productivity gains). Uploads at equal speed to downloads. Interactive. Cool. Crikey have an excellent summary. All that is required to achieve expert status within a relatively short read. link part 1 link part 2 Points against: It's expensive.
  24. I was in Melbourne over the weekend. The disruption so far compared to the Sydney light rail is minimal. At least they are finally building some infrastructure with the cheap money. They should have started this 7 years ago.
  25. That's what happens when you shoot using microfilm.