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  2. None of the above. Joe Rogan should run as an independent, he'd go close to winning and would be better than either candidate.
  3. Yesterday
  4. Given the choice of ongoing Trumpian ineffectiveness or a return to the "military-industry complex" nightmare of 5 years ago I think I know what many people would like
  5. I don't follow politics much so will have to trust your judgement. But Biden will simply be propped up as the facade to the military-industry complex doing what they want.
  6. Last week
  7. Yeah but all the current polling is showing him losing them and Texas just turned on him by mandating face masks. Tulsa has now put Herman Cain in the hospital. The annualised covid deaths for the US (even just using the current probably low numbers if you consider excess deaths) is within spitting distance of being the number one killer for the year. He went on tv again yesterday saying "it'll magically go away, he hopes" as recorded cases jumped 10% from the previous days all time record largely lead by swing/red states. The week on week death rate decoupled from Sweden last week, could be a blip, seems unlikely as it is 3 weeks after the US bounce. At the same time as he tried again to remove obamacare. Oklahoma just voted to -increase- medicaid. Unemployment is running out; second shutdowns have started in Florida & Texas. Framing that as a Democrat thing would be hard. The GOP is saying "yeah we'll do another financial aid package but it won't be as big". The proposed investigating committee for the Russia bounty money looks to be considering using the Bhengazi precedent to get hold of the daily briefings and I forgot how strongly Americans feel about their troops. Could voter sentiment swing around? sure. It doesn't seem likely to me. I'd say Trump dropping out completely seems about as likely. If I could find a place where I could make a bet on Trump dropping out I'd seriously consider it.
  8. Trump doesn't need a majority to win, just the swing states. I think he can blame a lot of problems based on Democrat-led states. Biden was such a shocking selection, I can understand why because he could be resembling a vegetable in 12 months so will be just a front man as always intended.
  9. Hey Swaize, I seem to recall Marty mentioned gold at 5,000 USD. Do you remember the timing? I know Jim Sinclair made bold predictions based on his "angels" which may be correct turning points but not correct timing.
  10. At least Trump can tell his mother from his daughter.
  11. Everyone says the polls were wrong last time but largely they weren't. They were way wrong a few months out but the ones I followed definitely indicated it was getting close during the leadup. I admit at the time when they were saying "hey this is close enough to be within bounds of error" I assumed those polls were wrong and watching the colours flip while waiting for a flight reminded me of my own biases quite strongly. Not sure if you guys are getting the news showing that trump seems to have acknowledged that their own internal polling is showing him in trouble. Seems to me he has given up on trying to piss off large swathes of the electorate in one go and has now adopted a tailored response where he pisses people of in smaller groups and this seems to be working. Covid response - piss off educated people, protest - piss off young and minorities, the new "russia paying bounties for US deaths" thing looks like it could be a good screw you to the military. And if the recent SCOTUS decisions are a guide I think his handling of separation of powers has pissed the judiciary off. 3 decisions in a row? I think Roberts is just voting liberal to remind everyone they have an equal part of the power (he voted the exact opposite on the exact same law 4 yrs back). I think the tax returns decision comes this week or next... trump seems to really not want them made public and he seems to take personal infringements more seriously than party politics so it could be time for a spectacular explosion.
  12. That's a bold call Mr M. I disagree though Trump was an unknown quantity with independent voters last time. This time he is loved by his base. But only his base. It is not enough to get him over the line. I know the polls were wrong last time, but this time even his fellow Republicans say he can't win if he doesn't change course. I don't believe he's capable of changing course.
  13. Earlier
  14. heh when they are both mid 70's I can't see why you'd think one was senile and the other wasn't.
  15. FWIW I think Trump will win the election, if anything because Biden is senile and I cannot imagine how coherent he will be in 3-4 months. If Biden wins then it's the official start to WW3. There's enough conflict in the world as it is right now and I think the military-industry complex will be ramping up sales.
  16. I think the test of policy is, "where would you prefer to be?" I hope to escape the second half of the year but not banking on it. Kinda hangs on how fast the RF opens its borders... which doesn't seem to be before September. Working from home, I like the no commuting aspect. I walk to school with the kids then start work at 9am. It feels humane, especially for them. Two hours extra a day is a blessing... plus working from home is fine regardless where home is, so if I can take advantage of that I'll be very happy.
  17. My Current Theory to keep me Happy (optimism is fun): 1. Buy more beer. -or- [1] The escalating new cases pop the death rates something fierce in the US in about 3 weeks, say mid July, about as unarguable as the past 3 days of new cases in the US, maybe a bit more. There are still a few people saying it is increased testing causing the biggly numbers but not many compared to last week. Sweden and the US weekly death rate percentage changes diverge and the US public realise their health system is f*cked (Sweden and the US have had almost identical weekly death rate percent increase/decrease since day 1). Sweden celebrates, no one in Europe will let them visit anyway. I mean, they're Swedish! 7 weeks from now, say first week of August, the US public realises that the most rushed and least tested vaccine in history will still not be here for another 3 months minimum and no one actually wants to be the guinea pig for that. All countries with active cases go into actual proper quarantine mode. This time with planning of "who to spend lockdown with", people that can cook will be popular flatmates. Stock market dies. Housing market dies. ISP's make bank. Lack of insurance, unemployment etc causes sh*t tons of havoc to the US public. Trump does something so retarded that even using nazi holocaust insignia in 88 ads will seem sane (not kidding he did this last week! I mean f*ck Me!) Biden wins in November by more than 10% probably with a Black female VP. Trump goes to prison not to a new TV network After 4 months of actual quarantine every house has learned to cook. Supermarkets etc have learned how to keep us alive etc. Even 20yr old me would have gotten sick of pizza after 3 months of fake lockdown and 4 of real. Netflix etc still haven't figured out how to deliver a better service than basic piracy provides. Supply chain has adjusted and we all eat like some kind of "eat local" hippies except the food tastes better than that hippy crap. Artificial meat companies make bank as the on/off switch is revealed to be useful compared to actual cows for a weird supply chain. 90% of the world spends winter in proper quarantine and it's not actually that bad Don't need a car, thats 30K a year saved Don't need to commute, that's a 20% reduction in working hrs etc Consumption reduces, waste reduces, only the seriously rich and seriously poor are having a sh*tty life. Biden decides he wants to leave a serious legacy, not just be "That Black guys VP that beat the worst president in history" plus the seriously poor are looking like getting a wee bit uppity. New health system New social welfare system (UBI? Maybe) Scientists / Specialists are rolled out constantly for news, speeches etc, people trust them. Bernie's head explodes In March someone mentions that global warming is still thing. We believe them. We fix it. Oddly enough no one is left that claims to have ever denied covid or climate change or neo nazis. Yay World. Oh and somewhere along the lines 3M makes an absolute sh*t ton of money when people decide that wearing masks is not a political statement. [1] Let's face it, this is an "and" scenario. Beer always makes me happy.
  18. Yeah - I didn't go to the protests either. My sense of self preservation is far too keen (AKA I'm a coward :-) By God, that rally of Trumps in Tulsa was hilarious though. I'm not the only coward by the looks. I was waiting for the Trump twitter meltdown. It hasn't arrived - yet.
  19. I'd argue yes it is worth protesting as well. I think even excluding the deaths aspect a change to the way that policing is being done is probably a good thing. The value for money proposition seems to be getting lost as politicians have consistently "solved" issues e.g. mental health by making it the polices responsibility. I'd argue it is not something they are trained for and shouldn't be their job. Seeing: Bad tactics used by the police (horses at rowdy protests just leads to dead horses, cable st in the 30's showed that) The inappropriate choice of using the police to work "protests -against- the police" (nah that will never lead to confrontational people) Almost wilful ignorance of social media (yeah tear gas journalists, children etc I'm sure that will stop the protestors) etc etc Makes me wonder how much the people making these decisions get paid and who does the job review. Something has gone awry I'd guess. The LA sheriffs department (not their only law enforcement agency) costs about $1000 per head of population p.a. as far as I can tell. This does not sound like a good value proposition. The knock on effect of having what looks like an above the law group of people is bad for societies. Having some 15% of your population unwilling to engage with the police doesn't seem likely to make things better. So the manslaughter video, the cooped up people etc. It's not likely the same opportunity will come along to make decent changes. That said the dip in this chart does seem pretty close to about 5 days after the protests got going which is not a great sign. This weekend Trump is having a 20K people convention in a town which is recording all time new cases high (not "since march highs" - all time highs), inside and preponderantly old poor people. I don't see the chart getting better. So I support the protests but I won't be going.
  20. The protests are a genuine conundrum. The needs of the many versus the needs of the few type argument. In the midst on a pandemic you are faced with a decision to protest against a clear murder. It's been happening for centuries - but for the first time there's video evidence. Recorded on video. Irrefutable evidence. You are massively angry. You protest and spread the lurgy and kill more people than you save via police brutality for X period of time. Have you won? I'm arguing yes - because long term you change the system you save lives - short term you are an arsehole. Thoughts?
  21. That seems a fair enough view at the beginning. I doubt anyone realistically expected to do such a good job at it though. Eradication seems (from way over here) a possible scenario in the Aus numbers (although I don't really know how good the testing or tracing regimes are - or how realistic any of them are, I guess no one really knows yet). If the testing regime is decent -and the tracing is decent and works -and the internal reservoir is killed off You have a bunch of options few other countries have. it seems likely the world as a whole is going to have to open up to some degree. That means there might be lots of ideas to watch and learn from, Europe opening internally this week, the US defacto opening a month back and NZ declaring itself clean (until some poms went and broke stuff) seem pretty likely to offer lots of info. Maybe a few more weeks of closed borders isn't a crazy idea. I do agree that open ended goals with no sense of achievement are pretty hard to get everyone to follow indefinitely. And certainly despite Swedens pretty crap numbers compared to next door almost identical countries no one actually knows if there plan isn't actually going to have been the best one. I think that given this issue has such a reliance on public adherence it might have been a good one to have online voting used to declare the public desire. Good way to test online voting and get the kinks sorted out
  22. The aim at the start was to 'flatten the curve'. Then Australia did such a good job public opinion changed to eradicate. Unless we keep our borders closed for years eradication is a futile goal.
  23. It'd be a shame if, seemingly a few weeks from eradicating it, Australia went and embarked on a second wave. The kiwis have gone a little crazy the past few days Yeah we could theoretically go to NZ but Ewa's mum is a bit sick and we'd like to get back there and help her out. Once you get a taste for working from home in an environment geared up for it (rather than just locked in your apartment) you'll never go back. All the pundits saying "oh people will want to go back to work for the social aspect" seem to think that the reason most people make friends at work is because that is where the great people are... Once you work from home with the freedom to mix in social groups of people you actually like and have things in common with the office seems like the worst place in the world. And as for "talking in person is so much better than email/video conference etc" pffft mostly it is because people can lie to me in person then claim it never happened or people can't communicate or a bunch of reasons which all resolve down to "I should suffer because person X is an incomplete person".
  24. There's a lot of that attitude happening here as well. It's only human nature I suppose. I went into work last week for a meeting and it is difficult to maintain the distance and no-one is wearing masks here. Three guys hunched around a laptop is the way collaboration works. Poland seems like a safer place to be than Canada. But you would have NZ privileges? I'm in the group that can continue to work from home - hopefully on a permanent basis. If so, I might look at bailing from Canberra all together and moving to the coast.
  25. The sentiment basically seems to be "The virus must know we are bored of it now" around here and down south. In The Plateau (students, immigrants, best restaurants, bars etc) on a weekday it looks pretty much like normal now, no masks, close contact queuing. In the Student Ghetto (where we live) last night there were a decent number of people wandering about carrying fairly obvious "going to a party" stuff and a couple of late night parties within hearing range. We were planning on waiting for the borders to open, watch what happens for a month or two then go home to Poland (which is not having great rate changes atm) but now we are thinking the next few weeks might change our opinion and we'll watch for a few days after the borders open while the process is sorted out then scamper away. On the bright side the border with the yanks is staying closed til late July I think.
  26. Some reality hitting markets at last. Apparently the number of new trading accounts both here and in the US has gone through the roof. A bunch of newbs expecting to get rich quick. John Alexander wants to raid super to support high property prices. Saving doesn’t make sense anymore, we’ve hit the wall with credit - where can we get the next sugar hit? Use super to offset mortgages': Liberal MP calls for housing changes
  27. The numbers are starting to come in. Florida and Texas report record high daily cases
  28. No mosh pits for a while - which spoils the atmosphere at most gigs. NZ (when they let us in) have no restrictions now so you may be able to visit for their summer festivals.
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