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  1. Today
  2. Try explaining to somebody under 30 that interest rates also rise.
  3. Yesterday
  4. Well the data i got was back to 1952, from england real estate In that timeframe longest bearmarkets were 5y long So 1952 - 2018 = 62years of data is not enough in this case to find the really big long downturns that might now come again! Try explain that to someone, they only know the last 30-62 years when houses mostly went up! Or in my case i only remember 2007-2018 with now 2 housing bubbles. So the young ones wont buy and the older ones have already and neither of them can imagine a 16year decline in prices....
  5. Last week
  6. Only the last 3, the rest in Moscow.
  7. The left and their false promises... Riot police attack protesters demonstrating against electronic home auctions
  8. London House Prices Drop at the Fastest Pace Since 2009
  9. I warned you all when my mortgage went to zero that interest rates will rise I warn you now that I am selling Australian real estate and buying Japanese with half the proceeds early next year. I suggest you don't emulate me as this is another stupid idea but if you are a follower of the "person that hasn't f*cked up yet" that is the move hehehehe
  10. From what I have put together from studies I have read and observing the older sensei (say 80+ years old) in various martial arts which I do ranging from insanely physical to quite sedate I think the two things are very different. General activity for a few 30 minute sessions a week is super great for your mental well being which seems to translate into pretty decent physical ability in the "as expected" range. Like some shodou (japanese calligraphy) sensei I know are old but way more "alive" (for want of a better word) than many of the other old people I know of the same age range. Mostly I attribute this to just being involved in life. Good shodou requires you to use core muscles but it is hardly what most would consider a work out. I get more inky than sweaty. Similar for things like tai chi (although I don't do that and can only comment based on watching). Endurance stuff keeps you skinny sick. Long distance cycling running etc. People are physically good looking but only as healthy as their lifestyle would suggest. Pretty much the same as shodou except skinnier. Amateur high impact stuff focussing on stamina is ridiculously bad for you at any level above casual, especially if you "single thing it". I am only 46 and I am experiencing a few problems from this (despite not really being a single thing guy). I had an eye opening about what I was doing to myself when I went to an event where certain groups 80+ guys were basically useless geriatrics at anything except that one thing they do (and not even really that good at that, they just had 60 yrs of knowledge). Amateur high impact stuff done in short bursts is good for you. If you are doing weights for example don't f*ck around with an hour in the gym lifting something you can lift for an hr. Get in and out with 10 minutes of actual lifting over an hr. Amateur high impact stuff done in an environment which has semi professional guidance is insanely good for you. I've been training a sh*tload of japanese bayonet fencing over the past two years (maybe 20hrs a week). It is a martial art almost exclusively practised by the military who, unsurprisingly, don't view days off with much happiness. Due to the pedagogy being handed down via instructors whose job it is to ensure you are ready to go fight a war or help disaster victims there are some very simple and notable differences. So I guess I would say chose something which is sprint oriented with a community aspect - "lift hard, lift heavy then go to the pub" (and has a low injury rate due to decent instructors) or "hang out with friends then go to the pub". Depending on what physical appearance you are after. Mountain biking I would not put in the range of sensible options if you even faintly want to try having fun. Injury rate is too high. Strength training with body weight looks like maybe okay but you want a good coach and realistically heavy weight lifting has more studies into damage and how to avoid it and coaches that have proven track records. If some one does a stretch session at the end of the class rather than the beginning it is always a good sign, everyone else is an idiot.
  11. Wait til the next election is announced.
  12. Is that all Siberia? Looks nice.
  13. I can't believe this hasn't got more attention.
  14. Brave man that flies to Siberia during winter and with Cattleflot to boot!
  15. One thing that is different in Russia, is you can't connect to wifi without a mobile phone number. If you connect basically anywhere you need to enter your number and receive a confirmation number by SMS. Big brother is always watching you!
  16. After a few days in Moscow I flew to Novosibirsk - the capital of Siberia. The airport in Moscow (SVO) seemed rather antiquated, I had to check in my bag and then carry it to another counter to be taken on the plane. This would be my first Aeroflot experience. Getting to the plane was an absolute cock-up. We loaded onto a bus, and were driving for what seemed like 15 minutes to the other end of the airport. When we got there staff hadn't arrived so we spent about another 15 minutes on the bus. By the time I got on the plane I'm guessing it took 45 minutes from the gate... just painful. Surprisingly the food was great! I try to follow a keto diet and unlike Qatar Airways they had excellent food for that type of diet. Leg room sucked but only a four hour flight and I slept for half of that. I arrived in Novosibirsk and one thing I realised quickly that even less people here speak English. I found my way to the bus into town after avoiding an annoying taxi hyena. I really wanted to tell him to "f*ck off" but thought that may not go down well. I made another n00b mistake on the bus. A guy came up to me and just stared at me without saying anything. I had assumed he was a conductor so gave him money for the fare. As soon as I gave it to him it was evident he was not a conductor, but a mute hobo. You can't really tell the difference. I quickly snatched back my rubles and the driver yelled at him to piss off. When we arrived in the city he didn't pay for the fare and was shoved off the bus unceremoniously by the driver. For the only time on the trip I slipped on ice on the way to the hotel. I hate ice and the footpaths were not cleared (unlike in Moscow). My first impression of Novosibirsk (NSK) was "bleak". The left bank of the city is highly industrial and a lower socioeconomic demographic lives there. The centre reminded me of any other ex-Soviet city I have visited, but with its own feel. I was lucky that it barely snowed the whole time while I was in Russia, but the soles of my feet have dried and cracked and it's actually quite painful to walk. The day temperatures have been rather mild. I frequented a bar where I met up with a guy I met via the interwebs. He's originally from Italy but been living in Russia for a number of years. He said people in NSK are quite warm and open. I got a few recommendations on places to visit, prices for nice restaurants and bars are essentially the same as in Australia, but hellishly expensive for local standards. I spent a fair bit of time walking the streets and parks, but as my feet were really sore I didn't walk as much as planned. On my final day I spent a lot of time with a real estate agent. She doubled as a driver showing me around different apartments. She didn't speak any English but mostly we could communicate, when there was a loss for words online translation did the job. The apartments were a mixed bag. It's amazing the difference ceiling height makes. 270cm feels really cramped, whereas 300-320cm feels so much bigger. I was told advertised prices are never what they are sold at, they are normally discounted. A couple of places I checked out Mrs Medved inspected a year ago. Places can stay on the market a long time. Getting to the airport was a breeze, only about 20 minutes, but given I left at 4am I hardly saw another car on the road. Navigating the airport was relatively simple given it is so small, but it would be a fluke to meet staff who know any English. Simply most people don't know it. I was told by a barman that if you go to other cities in Siberia there may be half a dozen people in the whole city who speak English. So if you come to this part of the world brush up on your Russian! My broken Russian is functional enough to get me to where I need to go. So now off to Moscow en route to New York. I enjoyed my time in Siberia but need to figure out how to stop my feet from falling apart in the cold next time I'm here.
  17. They still look very expensive compared to Ollolai
  18. That was a huge spike for the week. IMO, it needs to break above 2% to confirm a rate rise.
  19. Earlier
  20. They will probably have to takeover government pension schemes as they go bankrupt from being forced to buy 'safe' government bonds, paying next to nothing in yield.
  21. Not sure. But I presume Ok. Just avoid high impact forms of exercise like jogging, jumping, squash, etc
  22. 5 years is a very myopic approach to viewing long term cycles.
  23. In other media Tate's reported as 'going to sue'. The only Sueing he will be doing is going to Susan his hairdresser. Poor little darling didn't pay attention in grade ten legal studies. Dead man walking.
  24. Marty today wrote about the great depression that came before the great depression. Very interesting. That one had its low on martys 51.6year ECM turnpoint and the next like that in 1878 is coming 2032 Martys dates are: 1878(low of depression) 1929(start of depression) 1981(huuuge inflation peaks) next date like that is 2032....? Pension crysis, government debt default, monetary crysis, shift to asia, real estate low Back then germany took silver out of the monetary system. Changes to the monetary system seem to come during/before baaaad times! Marty says somewhere 2021-24 will be another monetary crysis. "In 1873, during a decline in the value of silver—exacerbated by the end of the German Empire's production of the thaler coins from which the dollar got its name—the US government passed the Coinage Act of 1873 in April of that year. This essentially ended the bimetallic standard of the United States, forcing it for the first time onto a pure gold standard. This measure, referred to by its opponents as "the Crime of 1873" and the topic of William Jennings Bryan's Cross of Gold speech in 1896, forced a contraction of the money supply in the United States. It also drove down silver prices further, even as new silver mines were being established in Nevada" As i understand this, if silver is no longer money then that reduces the money supply and is deflationary. "rampant fraud in the building of the Union Pacific Railway up to 1869 culminated in the Credit Mobilier panic. Railway overbuilding and weak markets collapsed the bubble in 1873" aaand there was a railway bubble. Also in britain and austria: "The global economic crisis first erupted in Austria-Hungary, where in May 1873 the Vienna Stock Exchange crashed.[11] In Hungary, the panic of 1873 terminated a mania of railroad-building." "Globally, however, the 1873-1896 was a period of falling price levels and rates of economic growth significantly below the periods preceding and following." Thats about as long as japan and happened in england and usa or as they put it, globally Now if historians look back at 2007-2032 they would probably see the same picture! Low growth, deflation, banking crysis, rising unemployment. Certainly after 2007 the world wasnt the same anymore (in europe and usa) After inflation europe actually has no more growth! Since years! 1873-1896 france and italy grew only 1% per year, just lile today! "1877 triggering mass emigration from other countries such as Italy, Spain, Austria-Hungary, and Russia." Jep we got that now from france italy spain portugal to germany switzerland "A ten-year tariff war broke out between France and Italy after 1887" tariffs..... TTTTRRRRRUUUUMP???!!! "three separate recessions, concentrated in manufacturing, occurred in the period (1874–1877, 1881–1886, and 1891–1892), separated by periods of recovery." 1991-96 was again a run to gold and a run on banks. Commodity prices fell which hurt the usa. Ahm 2000-2003 then 2007-2012 aaaand? There was the 1879 famine and wheat and silk production got hit by diseases. Ahm wheat rust fungus appeared this year. "The People's Party, also known as the Populists, from 1892 to 1896, it played a major role as a force in American politics. It was highly critical of capitalism, especially banks and railroads Established in 1891 as a result of the Populist movement, the People's Party reached its zenith in the 1892 presidential election, when its ticket, composed of James B. Weaver and James G. Field, won 8.5% of the vote. The Populists represented hostility to elites, cities, banks, railroads." We have that now! With corbyn, AfD, le pen, 5-star, oprah winfrey The 1896 Broadway melodrama The War of Wealth was inspired by the panic of 1893. "The Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890, while falling short of the Free Silver movement's goals, required the U.S. government to buy millions of ounces of silver above what was required" this bankrubted the USA! lol stupid... "According to high estimates, about 17%–19% of the workforce was unemployed at the panic's peak." Not there yet. President Grover Cleveland, a Democrat, was blamed for the depression. He in turn blamed the Sherman Silver Purchase Act. The decline of the gold reserves stored in the Treasury fell to a dangerously low level. This forced President Cleveland to borrow $65 million in gold from Wall-Street banker J.P. Morgan and the Rothschild banking family of England.[12] i guess this time government will just steal the pensions cause goldman aint gonna bail them out lol
  25. Goodness, 16 years straight down....THATS demoralizing. Thanks for that chart cobran! I can add that in great britain housing data back to 1952 the bearmarkets lasted 5 years and never longer. 1952 was the start of martys real estate cycle, 2007/17 is the end. So obviously cobran you just showed me that i need a longer data series to get a real picture of how nasty downturns can be when the big cycles end! Seems that 5y timeframe doesnt apply to uber-mega-bubbles.
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