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  1. Today
  2. (I am not sure how much american news you guys get) If you have seen the trump speeches whilst watching the market it has been hilarious in a dark way. Every time he goes off script and starts with his bullsh*t the market just collapsed. It was close enough to a real time thing the other week. Given that the current US media spin is that "100 000 deaths will mean we did a good job" and there are only about 5k deaths so far in the US and a roughly expected 60-90 days to go we are going to see numbers that are truly mind boggling. To reiterate. The US government is currently saying their "We Dun Super Good" scenario is about 3000 deaths per million in the US. Italy is currently at 218. Australia is currently 0.9 per million. So I figure Berkshire is the place to go if you want US exposure. They have cash out the wazoo and are famous for waiting for down markets to buy big arse chunks of stuff. The head two guys are old and going to die soon ish but they seem to have a decent succession plan in place as far as I can tell. I am planning to wait for the next US market drop and then chuck 250K at Berkshire give or take for an A. I don't think the markets in the US have reacted to the extended shutdown yet. The indexes are all about the same as they were before the extension was announced the other day. I don't think many algorithms have factored in what that volume of deaths means. So waiting a week or two seems prudent. I have moved all of my Yen out to $AU. Japan is going to be an absolute sh*tstorm in about a week. Tokyo hospitals are already being overwhelmed. Probably a good time to switch it out, looks like we won't be back in Japan for at least another year anyway so local currency doesn't matter so much. Where lived in Japan they have -advised- not to go to the pub after 2200. But the trains are still packed every day. I bought a decent chunk of $US, GBP and SGD a few months back and the recent collapse of the AU dollar has made that seem a decent enough idea. I flicked 100K into zloty about 6 months back and even that has made money. So far now I am just holding onto my remaining $AU.
  3. Yesterday
  4. Well the borders here are closed (both Quebec and Canada) so I don't see us leaving for a while Canadians seem to be taking it pretty well. Supermarkets are fully stocked, none of that weird toilet paper thing happening. They do have signs in the supermarket saying "Two items per customer please" though.
  5. Oh dear! You know I like you tor, but do you mind keeping away from Sweden or Australia until your jinx is broken?
  6. Haha... sounds like a mate of mine. In the space of about a month he evacuated several times due to bush fires, dealt with landslides and floods, struck down by an unknown virus pre-Wuhan outbreak, and his wife was bitten by a deadly snake. Now his business has been shut down by the government due to the panic! Probably for six months. Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. I hope they weren't Bezos-like photo leaks. Have the Canadians freaked out or are they taking it in their stride? Just as a time marker (from the post in October), gold got up to 2700 AUD but has eased a bit. That's almost +500 AUD since October. If it has a similar run as in the GFC it should get close to 3000 AUD. AUD/USD has dropped from around 0.70 to 0.59, so my liquid investments have held up well in the short-term.
  7. Apparently oil is in contango. If only I had a tanker! https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tanker-tantrum-how-crudes-record-contango-has-created-greatest-trade-decades With many countries banning food exports I expect commodity prices to increase. Long oil and food.
  8. ahahaha nope. Maybe 20 seconds after I posted that things went super f*cking weird. Someone posted pictures of me and people that don't like being on the internet along with my details. Some of the other people in the photos and my lawyer suggested very strongly that I do not post in my favourite "Drunk Post" forums. Then we spent a year taking disasters with us. I swear every country we went to weird arse crap happened. Biggest typhoon ever? yeah we got the last flight out of Japan some 2 hrs before it hit, NZ? Some dumb f*ck shoots up a thing. Visit Israel? Trump pulls troops out and lets Syria and Turkey go mental under Russian diplomacy. Hide in Poland? Actually that worked. The one country I am most nervous about being f*cked over for my family (oh we got married again there) and nothing happened. heh. Then we come to Canada just in time for everyone to go mental with the virus. Currently we are fairly sure I am infected (stupid dirty Toronto people coming to delightful French Canada) but low ish symptoms. And worst of all our French classes have been cancelled, all I wanted was to learn Canadian French good enough to annoy all of my French French friends. I have learned to make an awesome poutine. This is of no use whatsoever in any country where you cannot get cheese curds.
  9. One of the advantages to being in lockdown in Montreal is Unibroue. I don't remember it being available in Australia but when I was here 5 years back I tried a bunch of them due to their high ratings. Now that I am living on them (and for super cheap, maybe $2 a bottle) I can say they don't actually have a bad one. As it looks like we will be stuck here for quite a bit longer than expected and the viral thing means we can't return the bottles for their deposit I am thinking of building a massive shrine to them in the form of empties. When quarantine finishes I calculate we will have like $70 in returns!
  10. Last week
  11. My parents are on day 10 of self isolation after an anti holiday and returning from os. Not a peep from Authorities. No one knocking on the door, or calling to ensure they are isolating or that they have enough food so they don't need to break quarantine. QLD are taking people to hotels for 14 days of isolation now. No more 'self' in isolation.
  12. That's a sad but amusing story.
  13. I heard brothels have been ordered to close. I'm investing in blow up doll manufacturers and porn companies.
  14. Earlier
  15. Again, sorry to hear about your troubles Mr Medved. Everything does indeed look bleak and it is difficult to see how this situation is going to improve soon. I think health authorities and government officials around the world know about the potential treatment for coronavirus patients with the medications that I have mentioned earlier. An indication of this is that the UK, India, and Hungary have banned the export of hydroxychloroquine. But supplies are short and it will take a month or two to ramp up supply to meet the needs of a pandemic. That is why the governments are trying to buy time by reducing the rate of infection spreading. Also, ironically, they want to dampen the interest in people demanding their doctors to prescribe the drug as it will reduce availability for the serious cases in the meantime. Hence, we don't hear much about the promising results of treatments and the health authorities expressing themselves as reluctant and extremely cautious about it when confronted. But the big risk is that you will kill big parts of the economy and large viable businesses/employers close down, never to reopen again. We have an extremely co-dependent just-in-time supply chain economy that can very easily be irreparably damaged, or take many years to recover. Worse, individual lives will be shattered, with people losing their houses (with 10-year bankruptcy effects or credit rating damage), can't pay their rents, and lose all their savings that may have taken years to build up. If the governments are not careful, this event will cause a strong backlash in two ways. Both against the draconian measures, which can lead to riots and revolts. But also, this can be another generational divide. The young, who are relatively not badly affected by the virus, are the ones that will bear all of the burdens of the shut down economy, to protect the older generations that are already on pensions and government support. The mortgage-free boomers win again!
  16. Soft commodities may perform well. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-food-security/panic-buying-lockdowns-may-drive-world-food-inflation-fao-analysts-idUSKBN21808G
  17. I went to an office on Tuesday. It was a like sci fi movie. I rocked up before 9am. The queue was stretched around the corner and down the road. Very glad I took a novel with me. Standing in the sun reading a book wasn't all bad. A man and woman in police uniforms came by once. One made a comment to the effect "all we ask is that you keep your distance." When I finally got to the door I followed the guy in front of me. The security guy, clearly from India, started barking frantically something at me in a strong accent, clearly distressed. I stopped to try to comprehend the incomprehensible. He was trying to tell me that I couldn't enter the building yet. So I waited in the entrance. He was afraid that someone would touch me, and requested I stood in the corner. Shortly later I entered the building. There were pieces of tape on the floor for the queue, all on a diagonal angle. I stepped on either side of the diagonal, and in an instance I had a security officer telling me to stand back in a panicked tone. I finally made it to the concierge desk where the woman was freaking out as if she was a bank teller being robbed. After I sat down I watched her repeat her frantic cries of "stay behind the line!" and "don't give me anything!" and "have you been overseas in the last fourteen days?!" One elderly chinaman wearing a face mask indicated he had. It was like preparations for emergency evacuations from a burning building. I stopped reading my book to observe the environment. All the staff were paranoid, as if they were to be randomly selected for execution. Everyone visiting the building was quiet and docile, not fearing to trigger an alarm for breaching the superstitious covenant of "social distancing." I was finally called by a staff member and was led to a desk. Well not to a desk. I was escorted to a chair placed behind a diagonal line on the floor. I did not dare move the chair for fear a SWAT team would descend upon me. I explained to the man that I could not submit a claim online because the system had been down for several days. He said he could not do anything, and that I should do everything online. He repeated that I should submit a claim online. Clearly progress wasn't a possible outcome. I asked him what he could do. He said he could leave a note on the system. Two hours of my life for a note. At least The Bourne Identity is a good read. But I think Asimov or Orwell would have been more appropriate. I get the impression the whole country is going insane. There is a virus that has already infected 99% of the population - fear. It is far more devastating than one from Wuhan.
  18. Anders you may be wrong. I've heard the government is on the precipice of announcing a full lockdown (in Australia). May last six months. I'm not happy at all. The government has directly cost me job opportunities and I'm out of work now, burning savings. I have friends whose companies have had to shut down. They are destroying the economy on something they cannot stop or control. "It became necessary to destroy the town to save it."
  19. During the previous SARS-CoV epidemic, there were studies finding that chloroquine had both prophylactic and therapeutic effect. For example: https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-2-69 Chloroquine seems to work in several ways: making it more difficult for the virus to enter cells by raising endosomal pH and interfering with glycosylation of the ACE2 cellular receptor (which smokers have more of, btw). And, as Dr Seheult explained, chloroquine also acts as a zinc ionophore which allows zinc into the cells so that it can stop RdRP enzyme activity. That is the enzyme that replicates viral RNA. However, the above is a bit speculative. The Vincent et al (2005) study above was based on only in-vitro (Petri dish) tests. But the anecdotal reports of the effect of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in humans are very good. So I am optimistic. These two cheap off-patent drugs have had known anti-viral effects for RNA-based viruses for a long time - at least 15 years. Yet, there has been little research done to see whether these drugs could become standard treatment protocol in case of future pandemics, like the one we have now. I am cynical about the reasons for this: there is no big money and profits to be made from such generic drugs. But why haven't health authorities in any country in the world demanded to find out from a disaster preparedness point of view? If laymen can find out potential cures that are worth investigating further, why aren't the experts doing it? Chloroquine is already on the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines, so it is not some obscure pharmaceutical drug.
  20. It is very sad to see this nightmare scenario unfold. However, I am now quite hopeful that things will turn around quickly. So now I'm an optimistic bull?
  21. The coronavirus is now probably mostly spreading in Centrelink queues and people crowding in Centrelink offices.
  22. Some of the govt initiative announced today are good. But for most detail is lacking. More will come to light. So giving unemployed a survivable income, by doubling the dole is good. Waiting for the #@^ notations. But how will this help the economy if the govt shuts everything down? $100k for small businesses to keep people employed. Sounds Ok until you read the find fine print. It's a rebate of income tax collected for employees. A lot of employers employee casual staff on limited hours, on min wage who pay no income tax. This one is a big spin
  23. and BAMM marty nailed that one again! just read what i wrote above on page 163 to warn you all but now marty is looking for a low between 11880 and 17.000 or maximum as low as 15000 max
  24. There's a problem with research that is pumped out so quickly. Normal drug research is guided by a team of experts and takes months to design. Is then peer reviewed and once published torn to shreds (or not by the specific research/medical community). Then repeated, rinse and repeat and finally accepted or not as some/best treatment. I've seen two news articles in the last few days, so to be treated with scepticism. A Chinese and an Australian study into lopinavir/ritonavir treatment. One concluded the treatment was effective and one not. Perhaps different testing techniques. Perhaps different response of races - drugs in experiment do have different efficacy in different populations. More questions than answers.
  25. Wednesday, March 18, 2020 (9:30PM EST): New controlled clinical study conducted by doctors in France shows that Hydroxychloroquine cures 100% of coronavirus patients within 6 days of treatment. A recent well controlled clinical study conducted by Didier Raoult M.D/Ph.D, et. al in France showed that 100% of patients that received a combination of HCQ and Azithromycin tested negative and were virologically cured within 6 days of treatment. In addition, recent guidelines from South Korea and China report that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are effective antiviral therapeutic treatments for novel coronavirus.
  26. The answer is complicated. The solutions more so - if antiretroviral drugs are effective against treatment or prevention of Covid 19. The patents have expired on these two antiretroviral drugs. They are manufactured as generics in a number of countries or in combination with other in patent drugs by the original patent holders in first world countries (and the USA). HIV medicine is incredibly complex and expensive. Does lopinavir/ritonavir, a relatively cheap treatment cure, prevent or stop transmission of c19? What if we chuck in another 4 classes of very expensive drugs that do a better job or act as a prophylaxis? In the short term I would only invest in drug companies that provide symptom treatment and promises of cure. Gilead comes to mind.
  27. The bigger issue will be production of supplies. Where are they currently manufactured? Who owns the patents? Could be an investment opportunity.
  28. I've pulled most of the cash out of my Aussie bank accounts. But oil looks to be a very nice play. What's the best way to get exposure? It could be down a while but it looks like it's going to hit generational lows. If you haven't checked out the In the Interests of the People YouTube channel it's worth checking out. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzwmB2wn8Slp3hko2Gpj2iA
  29. I suspect this thing is bigger than being reported. I now live in a townhouse, so if the 9 or so close townhouses turn their tv up or play slightly loud music i'm aware. 3 of those households are emitting hacking coughs. Guess what? 2 stop coughing during the day meaning they are going to work. The share TH of taxi drivers are continuing to work and potentially be very infectious. Perhaps they have all just taken up smoking! The bank run will commence sometime next week.
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