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  1. Today
  2. I think the issue is that he has two predictions for stuff as soon as he starts trying to sell his whole theory of the world. The socrates prediction and his own. Easy to be correct when you have both outcomes covered... He seems to be actually okay at predicting when he gets out of the whole "cycles apply to everything" mode and just looks at trading data. I think I still have a prediction from him where France is going to collapse fairly soon that feels counter to the EU bottom theory.
  3. Hey guys @cobran20 you said i should make a portfolio and report about it, well i did, 3 years ago, i set out to beat all hedgefunds managers in the world and at least make it into the top10 every year and this year as every year im beating the hell out of those idiots I usually say what im gonna do in advance and then do it. I start every year with 100k and measure at the end of the year what my performance was. I write down every trade on the day im doing it and often already in advance. So here is my lonely, narcissistic blog of trashing hedgefunds and giving myself a high five: with archive 2015 jan,feb you can get to the first posts, oh its only 2 years from 2015.... well im bragging a lot in the blog too haha ah no wait, 2015 2016 2017 yes the third year already: As for Marty, he doesnt give out many/any real forecasts from socrates on the blog. Also Socrates is super longterm. I can give you ones from the WEC2015 that are still years out and ones from this year in HongKong about events 4 years from now. The tradeble ones about the markets are usually just reversals and turnpoints. Turnpoints can be highs OR lows thats where Marty often f*cks it up in reports Thats where Reversals come in and he says, IF we elect that reversal THEN that turnpoint will be a high. As for BREXIT i gathered all his blog posts somewhere either here or in the WEC forum to show that the computer DID predict Brexit. That was possible cause he had a model for it. With the French election he also had one, predicting Le Pen (the third party) will beat all the old standard parties. But Macron came in and beat her, so socrates forecast was correct but useless cause le pen won against the standard parties as forecasted but Macron won the presidency This reminds me of the oracle of Delphi, (Marty comes from near Philadelphia) the Greek oracle said to a king (Krösus? who asked if he should attack tomorrow) that an empire will die in the battle. So the King went and attacked, but lost the battle and his own empire died, gotta be more specific For the DOW the arrays on the yearly look really bad,wobbly,weird,useless so he still isnt able to forecast the final high thereyet. He DID call the 2015 high, spectacularly called the september2016 low on the ECM date, the breakout 2016/2017 like clockwork so far, just the final high he isnt able to forecast correctly in reports, maby its just really far off still? The newest is: if late 2018 is a low on the quarterly basis, then the high can be off into 2022 basically the phase transition comes when the DOW surpasses 23.000 and 2018 and 2022 are turnpoints. His final gold low calls are equally wobbly. He himself got it wrong, but socrates gave december2015 or april2016 as the forecast for low (i posted that here in advance, the benchmarks) Marty then got the high mid2016 a bit off, like by a month or so. At the latest WEC he said he still doesnt see gold taking off yet and there MIGHT still be new lows, otherwise we should buy upon a monthly close above his 1363? or so number from the blog. When we look at silver its almost back to the lows, id say socrates is doing ok for now, not perfect but okay. On the blog you can see me short precious metal from the mid 2016 high and making a profit. In Summary, he gives himself too many high fives and words like "perfect" definitely stem from martys ego not socrates performance. The title "forecaster" also implies a bit too much. Its not like he permanently forecasts the whole future in detail, more like a hazy picture, with a few puzzle pieces, which sometimes gets pushed a few years further into the future. When he ran the Australian Hedgefund he had a team watching markets 24h 24/7 which he didnt have to do if he knew the future. His claimed performance is 100% gains a year. Pretty damn good for a mortal human of course! Not god-like or magic. But if you have a look at my blog, youll see what Socrates is up against, most hedgefunds are really LOUSY! On the last note, i will give you the year where marty sees the dollar high, currency chaos, which will then trigger all the Chaos he talks about so often. 2020-2022 should be that time when the dollar peaks and after that 2023 should be the mystical worldwide monetary reform! Also lately on the blog he made public the date which he thinks the EU will have its economic low, 2021, which is also the next yearly turnpoint for the Dollar against the Euro! Swaize
  4. I think we're discounting that Cobran doesn't want to be found... The effort versus reward just isn't there.
  5. Yesterday
  6. Cobran we do love you! All is forgiven. Come back.... Seriously Cobran, we do hope all is ok.
  7. Search party will be required for cobran, something is up. He normally messages me when he goes on holidays. I'm still waiting for an NBN connection so dropping by here sparingly. I succumbed and obtained mobile broadband for my laptop and it is freaking expensive!
  8. Last week
  9. Nail -> head sol. Interagency co-operation is a bit of a myth. If I can use an analogy. (Sorry tor) Like children competing for their parents affection, agencies are competing for budget, so are reluctant to cede credit for any other agency for their own success in preventing baddies doing bad. We already share data and the prevention of badness is largely based on the skills that different agencies can bring to bear on the analysis of the data. I guess the argument could be made that efficiencies can be gained through centralisation of the effort. However, competition also provides the benefit of different approaches to the analysis. If increased communication between silos is the objective then I think that can be achieved without amalgamation. It does also seem that there is an ever widening focus on having access to the content of messages rather than simply the metadata. The letters content versus the addresses. I find this concerning.
  10. I'm sweaty thinking about getting killed. It's fair to say that there is a lot of fantasy on my part emulating US films where people being dicks cop some serious retribution. In my experience, reproaching bad behaviour (most recently with my bogan neighbours that were drunk doing burnouts in their front yard and messing up ms clowns washing on the line) was not fruitless. In spite of politely asking initially that they cease and desist I was challenged to a fight. Three against one. In my fantasy I dealt with the villains mercilessly. What actually happened was I declined the offer and walked away after re-emphasising my point. Being abused all the way back home. Sounds like a loss but after one subsequent burnout on the road in front of my house eighteen months ago there have been no further incursions. Given that I lack the skills that your training provides this is probably the best outcome that I could have hoped for. Your kind offer offer of accomodation would no doubt require a balancing the relative costs of hotel versus hospital in Nagoya. Ms clown informs me she is opting for the latter.
  11. Just sorting out demarcation of jurisdiction should take a decade or two. No agency in this league wants to play second fiddle, so you can imagine the lobbying to be the dominant organisation!! Frankly, my suspicious mind also wonders whether something else is afoot. Are they falling into the M. Armstrong trap of wanting to be able to predict and control everything. This is all predicated on politicians wanting to keep their citizens safe. You can hear the rehearsed rhetoric every time one of them opens their mouth. They seriously believe this will eradicate terrorism without any cost to personal privacy or even human decency is ludicrous. Honestly! Getting to a level where you can predict every single individual threat to our communities is closely akin to herding cats. As you know, I believe there is a place for government. Nothing operates without governance controls, including personal & family affairs, but when government thinks it needs to control every little thing about our life, then the system is seriously dysfunctional. I have to wonder what threats they are really pursuing.
  12. I have extravagant plans in that regard! I am sick of people doing martial arts as "evening fitness" I am also sick of people claiming "mystic wonder powers". Most of the time if you punch someone in the throat when they are being a dick all their friends decide not to be dicks for ten minutes. Extending that ten minutes would be awesome. Not punching the throats would be even awesomer. So I started two new companies dedicated to teaching people to just f*cking kill the other guy and to learn how to become a better person based off that. Might have accidentally got my third country asking me to be a citizen from it I do think that knowing how to kill someone effectively is a good way to know all of your own weaknesses in real life. It is amazing how many people lack the skills for their mindset and lack the mindset for their skills. Once people know about killing they tend to not want to do it anymore. So yes the dojo is in planning. It will have tons of rooms for guests so you will always have a room if that project gets off the ground. They might want you to get sweaty
  13. I remember a billing project connecting telecom NZ with AAPT that lasted longer than I think either company did in Aus. You are sorted
  14. I'm about to become part of a homeland security mega dept! Just to keep the right wing rump happy. Still, the amount of work connecting the systems of six+ agencies should keep me employed until retirement. :-)
  15. Running the Whitehouse like a family business. You could cut the sense of entitlement with a knife. There was a classic but of logic in an interview last week. If Putin had hacked you, he's so good that you wouldn't know you'd been hacked. Therefore the fact that we know we were hacked probably means it wasn't Putin...
  16. Congrats on becoming a sensei! When can we expect you to open your dojo?
  17. It is school hols. I'll organise a search party in the morning.
  18. Earlier
  19. I know! The wife is getting worried. If I don't have cobran to argue with it is sure to spill out somewhere in the real world. Plus she doesn't know what will happen when she buys me the little bottles of scotch which means I get less scotch! It hasn't mattered much for the past fortnight as I have been training and testing to get my sensei level in one martial art (I got it, I am f*cking stoked) but I have nothing much planned of high stress for the next few months and will need someone to rant at.
  20. Hello everyone. Just booting this topic to enquire about Cobran. Anyone know if he/she is alright? Its not like him to go absent without letting us know. I'm ashamed to admit it, but I also rely on him to post the articles. I know I took his longevity for granted, and I shouldn't have. Come back Cobran. We miss you!! Even tor - doesn't have anyone to argue with any more.
  21. The increases in excise were a large reason why my cigars were such an insanely good investment.
  22. Moving house this week, major pain in the butt as moving to an apartment. Moved most stuff myself too. Trying to downsize "stuff" but ran out of time. Received notice to vacate so not much flexibility. So busy not lazy. Cobran is AWOL, normally he sends me a message if on holiday.
  23. I've read it all. According to a real estate agent properties on main roads are very desirable and sell for a premium - article in the local rag.
  24. Is cobran on holiday and Medved being lazy? I strained a muscle at training and am drunk so here is some stuff! (anyone know why socrates needs a relaunch?) (I thought americans [and armstrong] were pro gun just so this didn't happen, maybe guns are useless in the hands of civilians after all, maybe they only work against kings in which case "stupid founding fathers") (hooray the yen didn't move much and I am slowly getting japanese customers) (so many bikes on the ground! won't someone think of the bikes! [I haven't spoken to any germans in the past few days - been busy - but his photos look like less than the average ice hockey win]) (No there isn't any such thing as “personal qualification", if it isn't classified then it sort of is "not classified" as exemplified by "not being classified", when someone goes out of their way to write something so that it is isn't classified they are after your arse for some reason or another. Fairly sure Armstrongs claims of being "almost as good as a real lawyer fail him here) (largely I agree with Armstrong there, I just don't expect it to happen and plan my life accordingly, I would refer Armstrong to his feelings regarding the persistent abu ghraib investigations should he wonder if the persistent russia investigations are justified; other people have their ideas of where accusation / innocence starts and ends. Seems that the GOP techniques under Obama were learned by the Dems and the GOP might not be as unified in power as they were in opposition. That means fun for us until the ambulances come) Hooray I updated and argued all in one post!
  25. I think that Trump Jr & Kushner are so used to being rich and getting away with anything in america that they didn't even consider it was really retardedly illegal not to make at least an attempt to make it look legit. Manafort is so used to working eastern politics he got caught up in what the children of the boss were saying Veselnitskaya was so used to working with phrasing covering the real topic for arguable deniability that what happened was: -go between- "hey come and see this sh*t that the russians who love your dad found (I am dumb or covering my arse for later) Trump "wheeeeee excellent" Kushner "wheeeeeee excellent" Manafort "another day another dollar" Veselnitskaya "So there is info you can kill clinton with but we need to sort out the adoption thing" (meaning the rich russian embargo thing) "where's my quid pro quo" Kushner "f*cking children? I'm out, qatar won't f*ck itself up" Trump "I made the meeting if we all bail I look like a tool in these two guys eyes but f*cking children?" Manafort "another day another dollar" Veselnitskaya "ohhhhh okay I have no idea how to make this report" and I don't think Trump (either one) has figured out yet what the implications are. Kushner at least refiled papers a few days back but, given he still has clearances it wasn't to keep them (I'd have lost all mine for a few of things he has pulled off now and I am no one), it was to have a decent media "He already declared that". Having worked at companies that have had levels of different skill sets all thinking they can work independently (I worked for Telecom NZ when the CEO jumped up and said "we deliberately make pricing hard to compare") I might be biased but it seems like a fairly normal f*ck up. Just slightly higher liability for the f*ck up, can't go bankrupt or get fired for being a sh*t president after all. Still his support in his base isn't dropping so I want him to stay. As Armstrong says only when everyone gives up does the change come. If we want the racists, bigots, misogynists and all the other f*cking small minded tools to be ignored when they are training the next generation we need Trump to become as big a laughing stock as crack became. My father only became "not anti lesbian" when one of his drinking buddies offered to f*ck his lesbian daughter to fix her. A truly spectacular flame out will mean the republicans do more for the world than the democrats have.
  26. Starting to get interesting now...
  27. Dude where's my car?
  28. How widespread are conservative views? Not very I think. Maybe popular among the base but they're a minority. Abbot is hell bent on destroying Malcolm. And not afraid of a Pyrrhic victory.
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